How Syria turned from Iran's ally into Hezbollah's enemy
Since the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime in December 2024, relations between Iran and Syria have undergone a major upheaval. What was for over a decade a central axis in the Iranian "Axis of Resistance" – with Syria as a vital land bridge for transferring weapons and support to Hezbollah in Lebanon – has become a hostile and problematic relationship.
Since the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime in December 2024, relations between Iran and Syria have undergone a major upheaval. What was for over a decade a central axis in the Iranian "Axis of Resistance" or the "Shiite Crescent" – with Syria as a vital land bridge for transferring weapons, forces, and support to Hezbollah in Lebanon – has become a hostile and problematic relationship.
The new administration in Damascus, led by Abu Muhammad al-Julani, has chosen a policy of active neutrality and has repeatedly emphasized that Syria is not interested in becoming another arena for regional conflict, and that its top priority is the rehabilitation of the country after years of civil war. In public statements, including in March 2026, al-Julani clarified that Syria will remain out of any conflict unless it is attacked by any party.
However, against the backdrop of statements made by President Donald Trump in recent weeks regarding the possibility of Syrian forces entering Lebanon to target Hezbollah's missile and weapons infrastructure, Iran is presenting a firm and clear position: any such move will be considered a red line and will lead to a broad response. Sources close to Hezbollah report that Tehran recently conveyed an extremely sharp warning to Damascus through Turkish channels, which included a threat to strike more than 100 strategic targets in Syria with ballistic missiles, including the presidential palace in Damascus.
The Iranian threat also includes activating several fronts simultaneously, including the Syrian-Iraqi border, the Homs area, and the Alawite coast, alongside support for Kurdish movements in the Aleppo area. The message was conveyed not only to Damascus but also to Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Iraq, with the aim of clarifying that the operation – if it materializes – will not remain limited to the Beqaa Valley but will turn into a broad regional conflict within Syrian and Lebanese territory.
The roots of the tension lie in the recent past
Iran not only saved the Assad regime in cooperation with Hezbollah, but also invested tens of billions of dollars in building a broad military and logistical infrastructure on Syrian territory. After the fall of the regime, Tehran was forced to evacuate most of its forces, and the new administration acted quickly to dismantle these infrastructures through arrests of cells linked to the Revolutionary Guards and Hezbollah, the seizure of weapons caches, and the imposition of restrictions on the activities of organizations linked to Tehran.
Today, Iran continues to try to maintain its influence through secret networks and smuggling routes, while Syrian security forces carry out repeated raids against these cells. In July 2026, Iran carried out an attack in the al-Tanf area and claimed that it had hit an American command center, but experts saw this as a warning message to Damascus against the backdrop of discussions about Syrian involvement in restricting Hezbollah.
Syria, for its part, has increased the presence of its forces on the borders with Iraq and Lebanon to prevent infiltrations by pro-Iranian militias, while it promotes relations with Turkey, Arab countries, and the West as an independent player focused on economic recovery. For Iran, Hezbollah remains a strategic asset and an absolute red line, especially after the loss of the land corridor through Syria.
Although Damascus has denied intentions for military intervention in Lebanon, reports of the Iranian warning illustrate how much Hezbollah remains the main anchor of the "Axis of Resistance" against Israel. The tension between the countries is not a direct conflict at the moment, but a quiet struggle for influence and supply routes, as the new Syria tries to shake off Iranian dependence while Tehran refuses to give up the remnants of its presence. Any further escalation could turn the cold relations into an open and direct military conflict.
