"It's a cultural war": The data behind the radicalization of messaging in Likud revealed
Internal polls conducted by Likud ministers and MKs revealed that for 80% of registered members, the battle against the Supreme Court and the Attorney General is the most burning issue. What started as the message of an unpopular politician has become the central spine of the party's platform.
The battle for the hearts of approximately 140,000 Likud members eligible to vote in the primaries is being conducted under high tension, as the nine spots reserved by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu leave few open places. The schedule for ministers and Knesset members ahead of Monday is exceptionally crowded: they are scouring the country, holding dozens of calls to ensure their names are on supporters' lists, and hosting meetings in home circles.
The map of votes in Likud consists of two main parts. "The deals" account for about 40% of the votes, based on organized agreements between recruiters and Knesset members. The remaining 60% are free members who vote based on the agenda of the public representatives. Netanyahu, apparently fearing the primary results, demanded an unusually high number of reserved spots to balance the list with more moderate figures, aiming for a "broad national government" campaign.
The legal issue as the top priority
To understand the "soft underbelly" of the electorate, ministers and MKs recently conducted internal polls. The results were unequivocal: about 80% of Likud members marked the legal issue as the most urgent concern. The judicial system, the Attorney General, and the Supreme Court's authority are the most significant events from their perspective.
Messages that were once the domain of the most extreme are now routine for senior Likud ministers. "Likud members have developed a real animosity toward Isaac Amit and Gali Baharav-Miara, feeling that both are acting against them," a senior minister told Ynet. Another explained that the anger toward the judicial system is rooted in a cultural war, where the system represents an elite that despises the party's base.
Security and social issues
The second issue of interest concerns security, specifically the Iranian threat, with about 60% of members marking it as a key factor in their vote. Netanyahu has long branded Likud as the party that provides the most experienced response to security challenges.
A surprising figure concerns the cost of living. The party that once boasted of Jabotinsky's five M's (food, housing, clothing, treatment, and education) deals with these topics less and less. Only 40% of members in recent polls marked these as important. Ultimately, the map of interests shows a deep change in the DNA of the ruling party: the fastest path to the top now passes through a frontal clash with the judicial system.
