"It won't look like Iran or Lebanon, the Mediterranean will burn": The dramatic threat from Turkey to Israel

Retired Turkish Admiral Cem Gürdeniz, considered the father of the "Blue Homeland" (Mavi Vatan) doctrine, spoke sharply about the possibility of a direct military confrontation between Israel and Turkey and warned that in such a case, the campaign would not resemble the conflicts in which Israel has been involved in recent years. He made these remarks on the Turkish podcast "Blue Homeland and Beyond".

According to Gürdeniz, under current conditions, Israel cannot afford to risk a war with Turkey. "There are those who claim that Benjamin Netanyahu might do such a crazy thing before the elections," he said, but emphasized: "It will not be like the Iran-Israel war, nor like the war in Southern Lebanon against Hezbollah. It will be something completely different. The Mediterranean will be part of the matter — do not forget what I am saying."

Gürdeniz explained that such a confrontation would not be conducted only through fighter jets and missiles. "Navies will also enter the equation," he said, arguing that Turkey's very entry into the war would completely change the regional balance. "The moment a conflict with Turkey begins — Iran will enter." The retired admiral assessed that an Israeli-Turkish war would quickly lead to the involvement of other actors. According to him, "The moment a conflict with Turkey begins — Iran will enter against Israel. It is completely clear."

Gürdeniz even called on Ankara to ensure that in such a case, Iran and Russia would stand by its side. According to him, Turkey cannot settle for the support of Saudi Arabia and Pakistan alone, but will need countries with "serious military experience and discipline." He drew a scenario of division into camps in the event of a war: according to him, the United States, Britain, Greece, and European countries would stand by Israel, while Turkey would need to form a stronger opposing bloc. According to him, "Diplomacy alone and condemnations alone will not be enough. Every condemnation gives the other side additional room for maneuver."

Gürdeniz argued that Israel suffers from an inherent disadvantage due to the lack of strategic depth and its small size, and also assessed that American and European support for it is eroding. From his perspective, entering another confrontation with Turkey, in parallel with the tension with Iran and other regional arenas, would be a move with exceptional consequences. "Turkey has many levers against Israel."

In another part of his remarks, Gürdeniz presented a series of steps that, in his opinion, Turkey could take even before a direct military confrontation. The first concerns energy supplies to Israel. Gürdeniz claimed that more than 60% of the fuel reaching Israel originates in Azerbaijan and passes through Turkey, therefore Ankara could order that "from now on, no tanker will leave Ceyhan" on its way to Israel.

He also suggested imposing restrictions on ships that have visited Israeli ports. According to him, although the Montreux Convention allows the passage of vessels through the Turkish straits in accordance with the rules established therein, Ankara could decide that ships that have visited Israel will not be allowed to enter Turkish ports. "I will not accept in my ports ships that are going to Israel or have visited it. It is that simple," he said.

Gürdeniz also mentioned the Kürecik radar, used as part of NATO's early warning system, and hinted that Turkey has the ability to temporarily disable infrastructure of this type. He mentioned in this context measures taken in the past against military facilities in Turkey during the 2016 coup attempt. According to him, there are also indirect trade routes between Turkey and Israel, although official trade between the countries has been stopped, and argued that Ankara could increase enforcement against companies operating through alternative routes.

"We are no longer in a time of peace." Gürdeniz argued that the central problem for Turkey is that it still acts as if the region is in a normal period. "We need to understand that Turkey is still behaving as if it is a time of peace, but we are in a period of crisis," he said. According to him, the war between Russia and Ukraine, the October 7 attack, and the confrontation between Israel and Iran are part of a much broader international crisis. He even compared the current period to the years preceding World War II and said that "the fire is gradually approaching," and therefore Ankara must adapt its policy to the new reality.

These remarks join other sharp statements heard recently in Turkey against the backdrop of growing tension with Israel, particularly around Israeli activity in Syria and the fear in Jerusalem of a Turkish military entrenchment in the country.