What the Ayatollahs do at night

"We will tear them to pieces," "We will open the gates of hell," tweets the American president with a periodicity of several weeks. "May God protect our soldiers," the US Department of War published a few days ago in another episode of "The Eve of a Powerful Strike on Iran." That is, the decision was supposedly already made, and all that remains now is to pray for the safety of the soldiers.

This time, no one was surprised when Donald Trump announced the postponement of the strike "because the Iranians asked" or some other lie. As usual, the Iranians denied any agreement and, as proof, attacked another ship in the Strait of Hormuz. Soon the stage will return where the US responds with fire, the situation escalates, Gulf states and American bases are attacked, the escalation jumps to the threshold of a strike, and then, at the peak of tension, Donald Trump again postpones the strike. In doing so, he apparently turns himself into a joke, and the US into something furthest from "great." At the same time, he also disappoints his friends in the Gulf, when he and some of his people occasionally humiliate Israel.

There are several explanations for the logic of this ridiculous zigzag. The first was the World Cup, which Donald Trump wanted to get through without interruptions from war news from the Gulf, and the same applies to the 250th anniversary celebrations of US independence. Another explanation claims that in the current situation, when Iran's economy is strangled, along with the economies of the Gulf states, the US is the big winner as a huge oil exporter, and this is in parallel with the reduction of Russian oil exports due to incessant Ukrainian attacks. The Gulf states are actually business competitors of the US in the oil business, and thus he gains an advantage over them and fills the state treasury, while time works against Iran. Thus, Iran is generally a tool in his hands to achieve an advantage and primacy in the global energy market, and after use, he will finish its overthrow.

The most logical explanation is the midterm elections for the US Congress, because one of the keys to winning elections in the US is fuel prices. For a high fuel price, the American public charges the ruling party a heavy electoral price, and Joe Biden can testify to this. Donald Trump does not want to reach these elections in November when the oil fields in the Gulf are burning, the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, and prices are sky-high. Instead, he creates waves of crises and relief, controls oil prices, and buys time to keep them at a level that will not sabotage him in the elections. This explanation continues to argue that after the elections, he will have all the time in the world to calmly overthrow the regime.

It is likely that this is indeed the most accurate explanation for the puzzling behavior of the American president if the starting point is that he is sane and not bought by Qatar, but he is making a double mistake. The first is that one does not stop a war to defeat a global danger from a monster in the style of Nazi Germany due to economic considerations, especially after it was very weakened. Granting a breather to this dangerous regime is an irresponsible game with fire. But also tactically, the postponement until after the elections alone could turn out to be a wild gamble, because there is another factor in the arena - the Iranian regime, which also hears the commentators repeating that after the elections, a death blow is destined to land on it. Therefore, all the Ayatollahs have to do is play the game, hold on for a few months, and then, about two weeks before the elections, set the Gulf on fire, skyrocket oil prices, create a global economic crisis, and crush the Republican Party in the elections, because for the purpose of skyrocketing oil prices, one side is enough, and Donald Trump is not alone on the field. The Iranians are capable of causing him to fail in the elections, a failure after which he will already be limited in continuing the war by a hostile Congress, will not be able to finish the job, will turn himself into a joke, and the US into something smaller than during the Obama era.