Inheritance battle and power struggles in Tehran: 'Cannot prevent the IRGC from acting on the ground'

Fierce power struggles are taking place at the top of the Iranian regime as the civilian leadership attempts to maintain a channel of dialogue with the United States, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) pushes for continued military escalation. This emerges from a report published in the 'New York Post', based on regional sources familiar with the situation in Tehran.

According to the report, the civilian leadership—President Masoud Pezeshkian, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf—seeks to maintain dialogue with the US and prevent a slide into a wider regional conflict. Conversely, the IRGC continues to promote a tougher line, relying on military pressure as a means to achieve its goals.

'They can sign agreements, but they cannot prevent the IRGC from acting on the ground or the parliament from passing laws that bypass them,' one source stated.

According to the source, the IRGC does not need to win internal arguments; it creates 'facts on the ground' through military activity, which the parliament then provides with legal backing. 'This shift is already happening, and once it is enshrined in law, it will be very difficult to reverse,' the source said.

Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), told the 'New York Post' that while Iranian politicians speak publicly about dialogue, those who actually make security decisions believe that military escalation will ensure the regime's survival. The gap between the political echelon and the security establishment is widening, with power centers leaning more clearly toward confrontation.

Informed sources noted that the IRGC's strengthening is reflected in public events. During the funeral ceremonies of the former Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, the front rows were occupied mainly by IRGC personnel rather than civilian officials. Furthermore, some speeches by senior political leaders were broadcast on television after editing, raising questions about who controls the regime's official messaging.

Meanwhile, Iranian officials traveled to Pakistan this week, which serves as a mediator, in an attempt to keep channels of dialogue open. One source estimated that the civilian leadership might strengthen if the IRGC realizes that its procurement options in the arms markets are shrinking.

At the same time, the prolonged absence of the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, from the public arena increases uncertainty regarding strategic decision-making. In the absence of a figure with supreme authority capable of deciding between the camps, each faction acts to promote its own agenda.