Anthropic on Track for Historic IPO: The Question of Claude's Subsidies

In four weeks, Anthropic is expected to reshape the landscape on Wall Street, potentially displacing SpaceX as the largest issuer and OpenAI as the top player in the artificial intelligence industry. The company behind the Claude language model plans to raise approximately $100 billion in an IPO, aiming for a market valuation of $2 trillion.

If Anthropic demonstrates profitability, it could become the first model developer to operate profitably from AI product sales, surpassing Google, whose primary income still stems from its advertising network.

Official Revenues Undisclosed

Following the 9% post-IPO decline in SpaceX stock, OpenAI staff opted to delay their public offering until 2027. Anthropic, however, is looking to capitalize on its current momentum and extraordinary revenue growth.

While official figures remain private, the company's annual revenue rate (ARR) reportedly climbed from $47 billion in May to $65 billion last month—a 38% increase in two months. According to financial consulting firm Motley Fool, Anthropic has reached operating profitability, with a projected adjusted operating profit of $559 million for the second quarter.

The Horizon for Profit

Despite Anthropic's skyrocketing growth—up 6,400% since January 2025—competition remains fierce. Current estimates place Anthropic's annual revenue at roughly $74 billion, compared to $41 billion for OpenAI.

"OpenAI is growing at a slower pace, but both companies are moving toward a duopoly in the closed language model market, with the potential for a third player, SpaceX (Grok)," says Omri Efroni, an analyst at Oppenheimer.

Orel Levi, co-founder of ANEK Capital, notes that for a successful IPO, the company must show a clear horizon for profitability. "We don't know if Anthropic is financing our queries just to ensure we choose them over competitors. If that's the case, this remains a 'dream economy' financed largely by venture capital," Levi observes.

Future Competition with Grok

Anthropic is on track to overtake SpaceX, which raised $75 billion at a $1.77 trillion valuation. However, SpaceX reports indicate its AI operations are loss-making: the division brought in $3.2 billion but recorded an EBITDA loss of $1.2 billion against $12.7 billion in capital expenditures.

This may explain why SpaceX’s Grok models are roughly 80% cheaper than Anthropic's. "SpaceX controls larger parts of the value chain, building energy sources and infrastructure, while Anthropic focuses on model building and infrastructure leasing," Efroni explains. He suggests that in the long term—perhaps within four to five years—SpaceX may possess greater capabilities than Anthropic.