Old Order: The country Israel thought had fallen into its hands is fighting back
The new Syria under the rule of al-Jolani is proving to be far from a country that fell like a ripe fruit into Israel's hands. Recent weeks reveal a Syria that is fighting for its status, positioning, and independent demands, which do not align with Israel's interests.
The removal of Assad from power and the rise of al-Jolani in December 2024 signaled to Israel an indication of change that could herald a new reality and a flourishing in the relationship between Syria and Israel.
At that time, Israel was in the midst of the 'Iron Swords' war, when pushing Iran out of Syrian territory was a supreme interest. Until that period, Syria served as Hezbollah's backyard and as a junction between the desires and capabilities of Iran and Hezbollah, serving them as a land passage to Lebanon.
Alongside the campaign against Iran, Israel also sought to sever the axis between Damascus and Hezbollah. Against this backdrop, Israel took advantage of the regime change in Syria and seized strategic control areas — some more significant, such as the Syrian Hermon crown, and some less, such as the buffer zone on the Golan Heights. All this occurred without any resistance, and even under the guise of assisting in the stabilization of al-Jolani's new regime.
During the last year and a half since al-Jolani took power in Syria, we have experienced ups and downs, closeness and distance, stability and instability. From a spirit of peace and normalization to the violent confrontation with the Druze in Syria that required Israeli military intervention, and in between, al-Jolani established himself as a legitimate leader: his invitation to Saudi Arabia to meet President Trump during his visit to the country, and in November 2025 he even earned a reception at the White House. The embrace and American legitimacy also qualified Syria's new patron, Turkey.
Where to, Syria?
Al-Jolani is busy consolidating his rule, stabilizing the new regime, and applying sovereignty over all of Syria. The path to these goals is combined with quite a few Israeli interests, such as: pushing Iran out of Syrian territory and severing the continuity between Iran, Iraq, and Lebanon, closing the border crossings between Syria and Lebanon, and preventing the free passage of supplies to Hezbollah.
In recent weeks, as part of strengthening its independence, additional voices are being heard from Syria that do not align with Israeli interests: the demand to preserve civilian nuclear capabilities and the declaration that nuclear material exists in Syria. This is the same Syria where in 2007 Israel destroyed a nuclear reactor in Deir ez-Zor that was in advanced stages of construction, and since then the nuclear issue in Syria had seemingly been taken off the table.
Under American auspices (even if not declared), the Turkish patron receives a significant role in building and stabilizing the new Syria — not only assistance in rehabilitating the army and its bases with advanced Turkish systems (a role reversal with Russia) but also a presence and dependence on Turkish personnel who accompany and mentor the locals in the processes of construction and capability development, and finally, territorial claims voiced by the President of Syria regarding the Golan Heights and before that, the withdrawal of Israel from the territories it seized at the end of 2024.
Voices and actions are occurring parallel to the negotiation process that Syria is conducting with Israel, initially with Minister Dermer and today with the head of the Mossad.
New Order
The choice of Syria's path in the al-Jolani era will affect the entire Middle East. Are we heading towards a Middle East of arrangements on the northern border (Lebanon and Syria), or are we heading towards building a new Sunni axis led by Turkey (it is worth not forgetting al-Jolani's religious origin) that will replace the Shiite axis, or if we wish, Turkish leadership and dominance in the Middle East as a rising power instead of Iran.
First, it is too early to eulogize Iran, and it will not give up its assets so quickly, and second, Turkey does not hide its ambitions.
Israel is between the hammer and the anvil, between Iran and Turkey. Al-Jolani's Syria has an important role, and the path he chooses will have an impact on the entire region and on Israel's national security in particular.
Where to, Israel?
In this complex reality, Israel must formulate a clear strategy, without creating new systems and without building new enemies (we have a history of building terrorist organizations that turned against us). How to push Turkey out of Syria without turning it into a declared enemy and a direct confrontation front, how to assist in stabilizing al-Jolani's regime in Syria without harming the security of the northern border.
Israel has an interest in normalizing security arrangements with Syria, building a direct coordination mechanism between the armies and forces on the ground, asking and doing everything so that the United States will be the present patron in Syria and not Turkey, in everything related to the rehabilitation, accompaniment, and construction of the new Syria, including its military power, all this without it posing a threat to Israel or harming the freedom of action on the way to Iran or in Syria itself.
Syria is becoming a central player in shaping and stabilizing the Middle East and an important place in creating the new order on our northern borders and beyond. Syria constitutes a central junction for preventing the Iranian/Shiite continuity, for pushing Turkey away from our northern borders, and for closing the border crossings between Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria and vice versa. Israeli political wisdom can and should meet these goals.
The author is a former commander of the Air Defense Array and is currently a strategic consultant.
