Al-Hayya is in no rush to fight - and prefers to play on the international field

More than a month has passed since Khalil al-Hayya was appointed head of Hamas's political bureau. Those who expected a "head-butting" policy were proven wrong. Since taking office, al-Hayya has executed several maneuvers designed to shift international pressure to the Israeli side and force it to reduce military operations.

The first move was to agree to the mediators' framework regarding the implementation of the second phase of the ceasefire agreement. Contrary to expectations, al-Hayya responded positively to the proposal, although he accompanied it with reservations. From his perspective, heavy weaponry can be transferred to the Palestinian technocratic committee for storage. On one hand, transferring rockets and military sites to the committee means they would be under the peace council, which might destroy them. On the other hand, it is not certain that heavy weaponry is relevant to the next attack Hamas is planning.

In any case, Hamas's agreement blurred the refusal to hand over light weaponry. The fact that the terrorists with light weapons are the ones enabling Hamas to maintain control on the streets was pushed to the margins. Instead of Hamas being presented as a refuser, Israel was marked as the one disrupting the agreement. The pressure from Arab countries very quickly shifted to focus on Jerusalem. Just in the last day, the Qatari Foreign Ministry again placed the responsibility for violations in Gaza on Israel.

The second move al-Hayya took was to begin political contacts with one of Hamas's prominent rivals in the past - Mohammed Dahlan. It seems the organization's new leader is aware of the decline in support on the street, and therefore seeks to preserve his power through political alliances. Dahlan heads the "Reformist Current" - a Palestinian faction that split from the Fatah movement. He went into exile in the UAE, built an economic empire, and enjoys ties with senior figures in the Arab world. Moreover, he is the nemesis of PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas / Abu Mazen, who, despite his promises, did not grant him forgiveness and did not allow him to return from exile.

Preparing for elections

It is not just about Dahlan. Against the backdrop of the stagnation in the Palestinian Authority, Hamas is also holding contacts with Arafat's nephew - Nasser al-Qudwa. This is the former Foreign Minister of the Palestinian Authority, who was expelled from Fatah. In the last year, he regained his membership, but discovered he was not guaranteed any position. Therefore, he chose to leave Ramallah.

With Dahlan, al-Qudwa, and other elements, al-Hayya is promoting the establishment of a unified list of candidates that will run in the Palestinian elections at the end of November. According to a survey by the Palestinian polling institute PCPSR, Hamas is experiencing a significant decline in support, but a unified opposition list could shuffle the deck. The list will feature individuals who do not hold an official position in Hamas, so the terrorist organization will try to return to the political arena through the back door.

The third move made under al-Hayya is a return to flying kites toward Israel. As of this writing, these are not explosive or incendiary kites, but it is not impossible that this is an attempt to test the ground while simultaneously embarrassing Israel. The use of kites for terrorist purposes, including setting agricultural fields on fire and dropping explosive charges, is well known in our regions. Conversely, on the international stage, Israeli statements play into Hamas's hands. The organization seeks to present Israel as fighting children with kites, rather than a murderous terrorist organization that is in the process of rehabilitation.

They have patience

The maneuvers of al-Hayya are somewhat reminiscent of the conduct of Yahya Sinwar. Instead of entering into a direct confrontation with Israel, where he has no chance of winning, he seeks to increase international pressure, reduce the Israeli space for action, buy time, and build strength in the long term. It seems that Hamas will wait patiently until the next opportunity arises to strike at Israel, when it again finds itself in a state of internal weakness.

Hence, there is a need to continue the work of eliminating the organization's leadership in Gaza and abroad. In the Strip, this mainly concerns the former head of Sinwar's bureau, Ali al-Amoudi, and several battalion and brigade commanders in the military wing. Abroad, these are al-Hayya and the rest of the bureau members, who live on the line between Turkey, Qatar, and Egypt.