Vance argued for negotiations, Trump ignored warnings: "We will deal with everything"
The intelligence chief warned, Netanyahu pushed to "seize the opportunity," Vance pushed for a different approach, and the Pentagon presented options for a "decisive" outcome. According to The Wall Street Journal, Trump ultimately chose to project power and launched a war that he promised would last 6 weeks. Half a year has passed since then. In the White House, they are convinced: "We destroyed the nuclear program and the army, now we will crush the economy."
A few days before going to war against Iran last February, US President Donald Trump summoned his Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard to the Oval Office to ask if a large-scale attack was a good idea. Senior aides, as well as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, told him that Iran was at its weakest point in decades, giving Trump a rare opportunity to dismantle the Iranian nuclear program and cement his legacy as a peacemaker. The question was whether a large-scale attack would work and perhaps even topple the regime.
According to the report in The Wall Street Journal, Gabbard presented the assessments of the US intelligence community: according to officials familiar with the meeting, she told Trump that eliminating Iran's supreme leader would highly likely lead to the rise of an even more rigid regime that would be open to acquiring nuclear weapons. Tehran would rush to close the Strait of Hormuz, which would destabilize the global energy market, and attack American forces and partners in the Middle East - which would raise questions about American resolve and credibility in the eyes of its allies. These warning sounds echoed warnings Trump had received from all sides. Senior military commanders told the president that a war would lead to casualties, concerns about weapons stockpiles, and readiness problems for an overstretched force.
Trump ordered an attack that began on February 28 and called on the Iranians to overthrow their government. Almost six months later, a conflict the president promised would end within six weeks continues with no clear end in sight. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps controls the country and fires on commercial ships in the strait. The regime led by Mojtaba Khamenei, the supreme leader who succeeded his assassinated father, shows no signs of surrender. The stalemate led Trump to consider declaring victory if the shipping lane were opened, even without a nuclear deal. Now Trump is relying on sanctions and a prolonged naval blockade that is wearing down American forces to crush Iran's economy - a "wait and see" strategy that he claims will bring the regime crawling to his feet.
About 3,000 Iranians and 18 American service members have been killed in the war effort, and the Pentagon says 756 additional American soldiers have been wounded. The war has also caused damage to American bases, depleted oil reserves, and reduced ammunition stockpiles. The conflict is weighing on the Republican Party's prospects ahead of the midterm elections and is dragging Trump's poll numbers to the lowest of his presidency. Some former White House and national security officials say there is no easy way for Trump to get what he wants: a deal that would limit Iran's nuclear work indefinitely and crown him as a historic wartime president.
"All of this was expected and predicted in advance," said Eric Brewer, vice president at the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), who worked in Democratic and Republican administrations. "You can draw a straight line from the fact that the war started without a clear political objective to the failed diplomacy in trying to end it."
White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales said in a statement that Trump had destroyed Iran's military and nuclear facilities and was now preparing to crush the country's economy through a naval blockade and sanctions. "He will never allow Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon," she said. "It would be wise for Iran to reach an agreement. Otherwise, they know what might happen."
After days of Trump threatening an "economic D-Day," at a press conference last night, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent did announce new sanctions, but focused mainly on further threats, this time to the countries of the world: "Cut all ties with Iran, or you will be punished too."
Vance warned of the cost of war, Pentagon officials promised maneuvers
At the beginning of the year, according to American officials who spoke with the Journal, Trump wanted another opportunity to demonstrate American power, following the operation in June 2025 to attack three Iranian nuclear facilities, and the raid in January to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro. Netanyahu proposed Iran as Washington's next arena. Not everyone agreed with the arguments for war. According to officials, Vice President J.D. Vance promoted a more cautious approach: Iran might dismantle its nuclear program as part of negotiations, he told the president; reaching a deal involved risk, but its cost was lower than a war with uncontrollable consequences. In addition, Iran's economy was collapsing under heavy American sanctions. If this path proved fruitless, Trump would have more legitimacy to attack Iran in a quick and decisive operation, according to Vance.
The American officials noted that Trump listened, but was ultimately convinced by Pentagon presentations that offered "decisive" options. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Dan Kane, and US Central Command (CENTCOM) commander Admiral Brad Cooper briefed the president several times on plans to attack Iranian targets, including the use of missile launchers, radars, weapons manufacturing facilities, mine storage sites, and warships. The idea was to subdue Tehran and paralyze its forces while Israel eliminated Iran's senior leadership. Despite warnings from senior national security command, Trump dismissed these concerns during the meetings and suggested that the military could handle any problem that arose. Hegseth and Kane replied on several occasions that they would maneuver through any complication, according to officials who were present at the meetings.
Applause, then doubts
CIA Director John Ratcliffe and Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff entered a fundraiser at Mar-a-Lago after the war began on February 28 to update Trump that Israel had eliminated Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei. Trump was so pleased that he told them to deliver the news to the audience. According to people familiar with the event, the room erupted in applause. Trump, basking in the praise from his aides and guests, folded his arms and puffed out his chest.
Trump's smile did not last. Battlefield losses and damage to American equipment and bases raised questions about what the US was gaining from the conflict. The military pain was exacerbated by turmoil in the energy market. Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz brought a complete halt to a fifth of the world's oil and gas trade, which sent fuel prices soaring. Some leaders from Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia and Qatar, contacted the White House requesting to end the fighting and reach a diplomatic solution that would preserve the dignity of all involved. Republicans also called Trump and told him that the war was hurting the party's chances in the November midterm elections. Trump raged in private about the harsh reactions, officials said. He wondered to his aides why Iran was not backing down in the midst of the relentless bombing campaign.
Diplomatic efforts stuttered, and then led to a ceasefire. Security officials watched Iran use the lull in fighting to lay dozens of mines in the Strait of Hormuz, although they were limited to a small area of the shipping lane. By mid-April, Trump was still torn about the best way forward. A friend who visited Trump urged the president to end the war. Trump asked if he should "bomb the hell out of Iran," said a person familiar with the conversation. The friend replied in the negative and warned that it would only suck the US deeper into an expanding conflict in the Middle East.
On June 17, the breakthrough arrived - a temporary peace agreement to reopen the strait, which paved the way for 60 days of nuclear talks. When asked by his associates why he went for a temporary deal, the president pointed to a new internal White House poll: almost 80% of Americans wanted a deal to end the conflict, regardless of its content. Tehran quickly resumed attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz after the temporary deal in June. Trump saw this as a betrayal. The cycle of frustration turned again. Trump announced a deal, only to see it collapse. He then issued threats to force Iranian surrender. Sometimes he carried out his threats, but at other times he backed down, citing renewed progress in the agreement to dismantle Iran's nuclear program. In late July, Trump ordered a large-scale attack that he claimed would be larger than any other attack since World War II. But he backed down after leaders in the region told him to avoid another violent event.
The 60-day period for nuclear negotiations ended on August 17. Three days later, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that Trump had turned to an economic pressure campaign to "collapse the regime" as part of what would be called "Operation Economic Outcast." Six months after the war began, the argument for "regime change" was back on the table. Meanwhile, the American blockade led to fuel shortages and sparked panic in Iran, and long lines formed at gas stations across Tehran. This was reported by the Financial Times. The Energy Optimization Organization, an Iranian government body tasked with managing fuel resources, warned that the country was facing a "critical" shortage of gasoline. The country had long relied on gasoline imports to supplement its local supply shortages, but the American naval blockade reduced Iran's ability to secure fuel supplies, while American and Israeli bombings destroyed some of its refining capacity in the first weeks of the war. According to the organization, Iran is now short 15 million liters to meet the total daily demand for gasoline, which stands at 135 million liters. Iranian officials said the fuel shortage was exacerbated by a subsidy system that provides the country's population of 90 million with the cheapest gasoline in the world - up to 50,000 rials (about 11 agorot, or about 3.6 US cents) per liter. The Iranian government, which spent months draining resources from Iran's strategic oil reserves, argues that the current price and quota mechanism is no longer sustainable due to rampant inflation and supply disruptions caused by the war.
