Trump bet everything on the confrontation with Iran – and now he is paying a heavy price
Six months into the war, President Trump finds that Iran's most lethal weapon is the price of fuel. With poll numbers falling and his party panicking ahead of the midterm elections, the president is desperately seeking a victory to end the conflict.
Almost half a year after the start of the war between the United States and Iran, the military and economic campaign is generating increasing pressure within Washington. Polls indicate an erosion in support for President Donald Trump and his management of the conflict. Republicans, fearing for their fate in the midterm elections, are losing patience, while former senior officials warn that Tehran is successfully stalling for time to turn the war into a prolonged confrontation.
Despite this, experts estimate that the chance of the campaign continuing until 2029, when Trump's term ends, is low. The economic price the world is paying—primarily due to the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz—makes it difficult for the international community to reconcile with years of conflict. The message for the White House is clear: Trump must find a way to end the campaign on terms he can present as a victory, without allowing Iran to "steal time" and drag the U.S. into the next election cycle.
The fear in Washington: Iran will stall for time
Former Deputy National Security Advisor Mark Pfeifle stated that to prevent a long-term war, the Trump administration must stop playing by the rules Tehran is trying to impose. According to him, Iran operates through a sequence of crises: tension in the Strait of Hormuz, proxy activity, and military attacks, followed by a return to the negotiating table. This is a deliberate strategy to wear down Washington.
Pfeifle calls for "tactical discipline" and closer cooperation with allies in the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. Iran's economic situation is deteriorating: the IMF projects a 5.4% contraction of the Iranian economy, with inflation approaching 69%. Household prices for bread and cereals have jumped by 116.7%, while cooking oils have risen by 261%.
Republicans are losing patience
The November congressional elections have turned the war with Iran into an immediate political problem. Patience among some Republicans is wearing thin, especially for those running in competitive districts. While most continue to support Trump, the rising cost of fuel and living makes this increasingly difficult.
Senator Jim Justice described the war as a "total mess" and urged his party to focus on economic concerns. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson acknowledged the link between the war and the cost of living but expressed optimism, claiming the U.S. is approaching a "new phase" that could stabilize fuel prices.
Trump does not apologize – but the public is distancing itself
Trump has shown little willingness to align with the political concerns of his party, stating he "will never apologize" for his decision to take military action against Iran. However, polls show a deepening problem: only 33% of Americans are satisfied with his overall performance, and only 28% approve of his handling of the Iran crisis. About two-thirds of U.S. adults believe the war, which began on February 28, is not worth the cost.
For Trump, the coming months are a double race: he must maintain pressure on Tehran to reach a settlement he can present as an achievement, while preventing the war from becoming a liability for his party's candidates. If fuel prices continue to rise, Iran could transform from a foreign policy challenge into a decisive issue for the political balance of power within the United States.
