The Saudi nuclear program and the hope in Lebanon: When Donald Trump zigzags, Israel must not hesitate

This week, the Donald Trump administration proved once again its ability to do the unexpected — sometimes to Israel's detriment and sometimes to our benefit.

On the negative side, the president proposed signing a nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia, recognizing its right to enrich uranium on its soil. This agreement stands in contrast to the arrangement with the UAE and many other countries that receive enriched uranium under the U.S. 'Atoms for Peace' program, established by President Eisenhower in the 1950s. This program was intended to prevent the proliferation of military nuclear capability to problematic countries like Iran.

But under the agreement proposed to Riyadh, the Saudis would receive exactly the same enrichment right that the United States seeks to deny Iran.

The American zigzag regarding Saudi Arabia

There are good strategic reasons for Donald Trump's decision. If the United States had not granted the Saudis the right to enrich, the Russians and the Chinese would have done so. But a nuclear agreement with Riyadh was always perceived as part of a package deal, along with American security guarantees, which the Saudis would receive in exchange for establishing relations with Israel. According to the agreement proposed to the Saudis a week ago, they would be able to enrich — peacefully, it seems, as long as the current leadership rules the country — while the possibility of normalization fades even further.

The situation from our perspective was not rosy, and then, a day after the president announced the agreement with Saudi Arabia, he reiterated that to receive the nuclear agreement, the Saudis would first have to join the Abraham Accords. As of now, no one knows if the nuclear agreement will go into effect or not. Everything remains vague.

While Donald Trump was dealing with the Saudi matter, he hosted Lebanese President Joseph Aoun at the White House. 'The ultimate goal,' Aoun told Donald Trump in front of the cameras in the Oval Office, 'is to end the state of hostility between Lebanon and Israel forever.' These extraordinary words were accompanied by actions on the ground, as the IDF implemented a pilot program of withdrawal from designated areas in southern Lebanon, which were subsequently patrolled by the Lebanese army.

Challenges and opportunities for Israel

The uncertainty in Washington's Middle East policy presents Israel with both challenges and opportunities, and we must be prepared for both. On the issue of the Saudi nuclear program, Israel should welcome the president's announcement regarding Saudi Arabia's accession to the Abraham Accords. There is also a need to encourage the president and offer Riyadh additional incentives for normalizing relations with us.

In Lebanon, we must work with Donald Trump and Aoun on adapting a roadmap to ensure the disarmament of Hezbollah and the achievement of Lebanon's independence from Iran. As part of such a plan, the Lebanese army would not only replace the IDF in certain parts of southern Lebanon but would also serve alongside us. Lebanon, too, should join the Abraham Accords.

A quick and decisive response to fluctuations in American policy is especially important regarding Iran. If attacked, we must respond quickly and massively, even if Donald Trump orders us to stop again. On the other hand, as long as we are not directly involved in fighting, we must respect the president's wishes and maintain maximum restraint. We must always remember that our world is currently in a period of uncertainty, and be prepared for any scenario — good or bad.