Storm in Spain: Did the government ignore intelligence warnings before the breach in Ceuta?
Defense Minister Margarita Robles claims that the warning reached the police and immigration authority, which identified the mass call to cross the border. These remarks contradict previous government statements that there was no prior information. The storm increases pressure on Prime Minister Sanchez, whom polls predict will lose his rule in the upcoming elections.
Less than a year before the elections, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez continues to get into trouble. According to Defense Minister Margarita Robles, intelligence warned the police and immigration authority about the possibility of a breach of the border point in Ceuta by tens of thousands of migrants from Morocco.
Robles claims that intelligence agencies identified the mass call to cross the border from Morocco to Spain a day before the crisis began, and that they shared the information with security forces and relevant government bodies. According to her, the National Intelligence Center (CNI) and the Intelligence Center of the Armed Forces (CIFAS) "did the work required of them" and "shared and analyzed" the information with the police, the Civil Guard, and the government on July 29, the day before the mass influx, during which 70,000 illegal migrants penetrated the Spanish enclave in Ceuta.
These remarks contradict the statement of the Minister of the Interior, Fernando Grande-Marlaska, who said unequivocally that "there was no report that suggested that what happened on July 30 was about to happen." The Ministry of the Interior even stated that CNI intelligence agents stationed in Ceuta did not pass on any warning. Robles claimed that the information was passed on orally, which created a confrontation between the ministers and led to harsh criticism from the right-wing parties sitting in the opposition.
Sanchez's party in trouble in the polls
Ester Munoz, spokesperson for the People's Party (PP) in Congress, asked during a parliament session: "Who is lying? The intelligence, the national police, or Marlaska?". Sources in the PP said that the party, which leads in public opinion polls, is considering requesting to investigate both ministers together. The party leader, Alberto Nunez Feijoo, reiterated his demand to convene Spain's secret security committee to examine the classified intelligence materials of the CNI.
Alberto Asarta, representative of the nationalist right-wing party "Vox" in the defense committee, added that his party has evidence that the intelligence services did know what was about to happen, and called for a permanent reinforcement of the armed forces at the border.
The crisis in Ceuta is taking place less than a year before the date of the elections in Spain, against the background of the continued weakening of Sanchez's political status. During the last two years, the right-wing parties have been leading in public opinion polls, and cooperation between the PP party and the "Vox" party, if it does indeed happen, is expected to bring the right to power.
In the past, the center-right party refused to cooperate with the nationalist right-wing party "Vox", but in recent months both parties have begun to form coalitions in local electoral districts. Recent polls give them a clear advantage against the background of the weakening of the PSOE party, the Socialist party led by Sanchez, which is in a negative trend in terms of support percentages.
Sanchez, who relies on the support of the extreme left, receives about 26%-27% in the polls, while the extreme left parties manage to achieve about 12%-13%. In contrast, the "Vox" party moves in the polls around 17-18%, and the People's Party (PP) from the center-right stands at about 32-33%. That is, if nothing unexpected happens in the coming year, Sanchez is expected to lose the next elections.
Will the corruption reach the Prime Minister?
Against this background, Sanchez is dealing with several corruption scandals in which his political associates are involved, including senior officials and his confidants in the Socialist party suspected of bribery, money laundering, and breach of trust. Beyond that, in the coming months, the Prime Minister's wife, Begona Gomez, may also stand trial on charges of embezzlement, after her brother was recently convicted of a corruption offense. Sanchez himself may also be investigated for suspicions of corruption offenses related to the party.
The corruption suspicions that have been piling up, as well as the criticism and the decline of the Socialist party in the polls, have caused senior members of the Socialist party to start doubting Sanchez's leadership, also against the background of the party's recent defeats in local elections held in several regions in Spain, including areas that were previously under its control.
The incident in Ceuta, which continues to occupy Spain these days, is becoming a strategically negative event for Sanchez, also because he chose to go on a long vacation while the crisis was unfolding. Although he stopped his vacation for a while, he returned to it while chaos still reigned in the streets of the enclave. The Prime Minister is expected to face difficult questions when parliament sessions resume in September. Part of the criticism stems from the fact that he declared a state of emergency in the city of Ceuta with a significant delay, only about three weeks after the start of the crisis.
Although about 90% of the migrants returned to Morocco by August 1, the consequences of the crisis continue to resonate. Thousands of migrants are still in the city, which sometimes becomes a scene where forces opposing immigration clash with migrants and their supporters. In addition, about 100 people were killed during the attempt to cross the border. Some of them drowned while trying to cross the border by sea, and others were trampled during the invasion of Spain through the border crossing.
