Country by Country: Erdogan's Plan for Middle East Expansion

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has turned Syria into a client state and continues to pursue a strategy of regional expansion.

Over the past week, he leveraged Iraq's oil export difficulties, stemming from the crisis with Iran, to secure the transport of energy resources through Turkey. Simultaneously, following US efforts to distance Hezbollah from southern Lebanon, Erdogan hosted Lebanese President Joseph Aoun.

Erdogan has spent over two decades addressing Ankara's lack of energy independence, which fuels inflation due to rising energy costs. Turkey's annual inflation rate fell from 38.1% in March last year to 30.9% this March, but has stagnated above 32% since May.

Energy Hub

Data from TradeInt shows that Russia remains Turkey's primary source of oil and natural gas, with Ankara paying approximately 5.98 billion dollars in the first quarter. Ankara is investing in pipeline infrastructure, aiming to become an "energy hub"—a crossroads for resource transit.

Amid the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Turkey is advancing the "Development Road" project—a corridor from the Persian Gulf through Turkey to Europe. This 17-billion-dollar project serves as a response to Turkey's exclusion from the IMEC initiative.

Iraq: Oil Export

Facing restricted access to the Strait of Hormuz, Iraq has agreed to expand oil exports via Turkey. Baghdad committed to transporting up to 750,000 barrels per day from Kirkuk to the port of Ceyhan, with plans to increase this to 1.5 million barrels. Energy giant BP and the Turkish Petroleum Corporation (TPAO) have signed an agreement to acquire 15% of BP's subsidiary in Kirkuk.

Lebanon: Deployment of Forces

Turkey is seeking to expand its military presence in the region. Erdogan hosted Joseph Aoun for the first time in nine years as the UNIFIL mandate nears its end. Ankara hopes that Lebanon's status as a sovereign state will allow it to deploy forces in the south, despite the opposition of Hezbollah and Iranian influence.

According to the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar, Erdogan informed Aoun of his opposition to a Syrian military operation in Lebanon and encouraged the development of dialogue between Beirut and Damascus.