"Oslo is dead": The dispute over the future of the West Bank, the "limbo" in Gaza, and the alternatives
Annexation, two states for two peoples, or another alternative? In the shadow of the explosive situation in the West Bank and Gaza, experts at the National Security Conference organized by ynet and "Yedioth Ahronoth" in collaboration with the INSS discussed the tense arena, the Palestinian Authority, and the conflict tearing Israel apart.
Against the backdrop of rising tensions in the West Bank and questions surrounding the future of the Gaza Strip and the Palestinian arena, a panel of experts gathered to discuss Israel's strategic reality as part of the National Security Conference organized by ynet and "Yedioth Ahronoth" in collaboration with the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS).
The discussion included Naomi Neumann, a researcher at the Washington Institute and former head of the research and policy-making unit at the Shin Bet; Dr. Anat Roth, CEO of the Shiloh Forum and a researcher on settlement; and Brigadier General (res.) Udi Dekel, head of the "From Conflict to Arrangements" research program at the INSS and former head of the negotiations directorate with the Palestinians under the Olmert government.
According to Naomi Neumann, the Palestinian system is at an unprecedented low, characterized by a split between the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, political paralysis, and the loss of a political horizon. "The Strip is generally in a kind of limbo," she explains. "On one hand, there is no high-intensity war, and on the other, there is no political solution." Neumann notes that although the IDF controls at least 63% of the Strip's territory and Hamas has weakened militarily, the terrorist organization continues to rule civilly in the area.
Regarding the West Bank, Neumann points to a "deceptive calm," where a pressure cooker is developing beneath the surface, fueled by five factors: the undermining of personal security, movement restrictions, severe economic damage due to the cessation of worker entry, the connection to the war in Gaza, and fears of a change in the status quo on the Temple Mount. She warns that the weakening of the Palestinian Authority is dangerous for Israel, which needs a functioning authority for security coordination.
Dr. Anat Roth stated that the Oslo Accords are effectively dead. According to her, the Palestinians systematically violate the agreement's clauses while continuing to engage in terror. "Israel is still operating according to the Oslo operating system, but the Palestinians openly state they are not committed to it." She emphasized that the October 7 massacre shattered the conception that security could be managed from afar. In her view, the two-state idea is off the table, and Israel must create an alternative that ensures national security without allowing the establishment of a Palestinian state.
Brigadier General (res.) Udi Dekel warned against the sovereignty strategy promoted by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich. According to him, this would lead to the inclusion of about 3 million Palestinians within Israel, threatening its character as a Jewish and democratic state. As an alternative, he proposes a path of political, territorial, and demographic separation. "I am proposing a path, not a solution," he explained. "We need to formulate rigid security arrangements, maintain full operational freedom of action, and control the perimeter to prevent a one-state reality and open opportunities for regional normalization."
