"We are heading towards an explosion": The worrying forecast regarding Iran
Donald Trump is increasing economic pressure on Iran, preferring this approach over a military confrontation at this time. Analysts Yaki Dayan and Avner Vilan suggest this strategy may burden Tehran, while simultaneously warning of Turkey's growing influence in the region.
In Washington, pressure on Tehran is intensifying, but estimates suggest that at this stage, US President Donald Trump prefers to exert heavy economic levers rather than be dragged into a military confrontation. Yaki Dayan, former Israeli consul in Los Angeles, and Avner Vilan, an expert on the Iranian nuclear program, discussed the American threat and its significance on 103FM.
Dayan stated: "We see a very significant economic siege by the Americans; this is the option they chose. Donald Trump understands that military escalation is highly inconvenient before the midterm elections. We saw two days ago that Abu Dhabi and the UAE are joining this economic siege, which is significant as the UAE is a key hub for Iranian financial activity."
He added: "I would take this seriously. It is a long-term action, but it is better than other options. Trump does not want to enter a military escalation, despite Iranian attempts to provoke him. It is a matter of perseverance. An explosion is not a question of 'if,' but 'when.' Once Iran nears nuclear weapons, Trump—who is very consistent on this issue—will be forced to act. I believe we are heading towards an explosion."
Vilan noted: "The Iranians may mock, but economic pressure has been working for years. The steps taken in recent days are significant. There is a strategic elephant in the room called China. Iran produces oil, and most of it goes to China. The question is whether the Americans will be willing to apply pressure on Beijing to further choke the Iranian economy."
However, he warned: "Iran is used to living under sanctions and passing the burden to its citizens. Economic collapse does not necessarily mean regime collapse. Threats are Tehran's way of deflecting pressure by trying to drag the region into further escalation."
The experts also addressed the Turkish threat. Dayan said: "The Turks are constantly acting to fill the vacuum left by the Iranians—in Syria, Gaza, the West Bank, and Jerusalem. This is a strategic problem for Israel. Even when Israel strikes in Syria, we hear no condemnation from Donald Trump, who views Erdogan favorably."
Vilan criticized Israel's conduct: "We are again following a strategy doomed to fail, opting for a defensive battle instead of taking the initiative. We use force but fail to create a political alternative. If we cannot build a block consisting of the USA, Israel, and the UAE, while bringing in Saudi Arabia and Egypt to counter not only the Shiite axis but also the emerging Sunni axis, we will find ourselves in a catastrophic strategic situation."
