Less than 100 days: The event that will determine the status of Trump, Netanyahu, and Israel
The US midterm elections are approaching rapidly. Democrats need three seats to flip the House of Representatives, and in some cities, the Israeli issue has become a fault line. In the House, Democrats need to win three more seats than in 2024 to reach a majority, while in the Senate, it is a more complex challenge for them.
One hundred days remain until the midterm congressional elections in the United States, in which all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 Senate seats will be up for election. Republicans currently control both houses, but the Democrats' chances of a turnaround are higher in the House of Representatives. In the Senate, however, the electoral map gives President Donald Trump's party a structural advantage.
To understand the battle for the House, one must start with the key number: 218. There are 435 seats in the House, so a party that reaches 218 holds the majority. In the 2024 elections, Republicans won 220 seats and Democrats 215. Democrats therefore need to win three more seats in November than in 2024 to reach a majority.
The current count is slightly confusing: there are currently 218 Republicans, 212 Democrats, and one independent officially serving in the House, alongside four vacant seats. However, this is a temporary snapshot created by resignations, deaths, and changes in party affiliation.
The Democratic Challenge
In the Senate, the challenge for the Democrats will be harder. Republicans have a majority of 53 to 47, with the Democratic camp including 45 Democrats and two independents. Even a 50-50 split would leave control in the hands of the Republicans, because Vice President J.D. Vance casts the deciding vote in ties. Therefore, Democrats need a net gain of four seats.
A turnaround in the House would give Democrats control over committees and subpoena powers, allow them to launch investigations against the administration, and block most of the legislation that Trump would seek to advance. The result could be two years of a divided Congress, budget battles, and confrontation between Congress and the White House.
The national environment currently leans in favor of the Democrats. In a Fox News poll published near the 100-day mark, they led 53% to 46% on the question of voting for the House of Representatives.
The Most Likely Scenario
Pennsylvania concentrates three prominent Democratic targets. In the 7th district, Bob Brooks is trying to unseat Republican Ryan Mackenzie, who won in 2024 by a small margin. In the 8th district, Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti is running against Matt Cartwright. In the 10th district, a rematch will take place between Scott Perry and former news anchor Janelle Stelson.
The most likely path for Democrats in the Senate goes through four Republican seats. In Maine, Susan Collins is running against Troy Jackson. The race also presents a sharp contrast regarding Israel: Collins is a long-time supporter of security assistance, while Jackson has accused the Israeli government of committing "genocide" in Gaza and pledged not to support American military aid to Israel.
The Immediate Implication: For Israel
Beyond the partisan balance of power, the elections pose a test for Israel's status in the next Congress. On July 15, 103 Democratic members of the House of Representatives voted in favor of an amendment submitted by Republican Thomas Massie, which sought to strike from the foreign affairs budget bill the entire military and humanitarian aid to Israel in the amount of 3.3 billion dollars.
The trend is also evident in the primaries. In New York, Brad Lander unseated House member Dan Goldman, one of the most prominent supporters of Israel in the party. All three candidates supported by New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani defined Israel's actions in Gaza as "genocide" and attacked AIPAC. In his victory speech, Lander said:
"We cannot continue to pay for Netanyahu's wars with our tax money."
Behind some of these victories is the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) organization, which has become a force capable of unseating veteran legislators in primaries. A resolution adopted at the organization's 2025 convention requires every candidate who receives its support to support the boycott campaign against Israel and to avoid contact with the Israeli government and with bodies defined as "Zionist lobbies," including AIPAC and also J Street.
