Meitav Projects Negative October Returns for Israeli Provident and Study Funds

Meitav Investment House projects negative returns for Israeli provident funds and study funds in October, driven by market volatility and late-month declines. According to the forecast, general-track funds are expected to post an average negative nominal return of 0.4%, with a projected range spanning from a 0.7% loss to a 0.1% gain. Meanwhile, equity-track funds face an average negative return of 1.1%, with estimates ranging between 1.6% and 0.6% in negative territory.

The S&P 500 tracking track emerged as the sole prominent exception among standard vehicles. Supported by shekel terms, this equity benchmark is anticipated to deliver a positive average return of 2.6%, maintaining a narrow projected range of 2.5% to 2.7%.

Pension Impact and Age Distribution

Comprehensive pension funds experienced losses that varied according to demographic age groups and corresponding risk exposure levels. Savers aged 50 and under are projected to record an average negative return of 0.6%, whereas the 50-to-60 age bracket anticipates a 0.4% decline. Beneficiaries aged 60 and above experienced a milder contraction, averaging a 0.1% negative return.

Avi Berkovitz, Deputy Chief Investment Officer at Meitav Provident and Pension, noted that October was characterized by sharp financial volatility in domestic and global markets. The monthly outcome was ultimately decided during the final two days, when favorable trajectories reversed into losses.

Year-to-Date Performance

Despite the October setbacks, cumulative performance metrics for the first ten months of 2026 remain positive. General-track provident funds accumulated an estimated 6.4% return, while equity-track funds generated a cumulative 10.6% gain.

Decline catalysts centered on falling share prices across Israeli stock exchanges alongside domestic corporate bond depreciation, heavily impacting diversified portfolios.