Four Years Since Mahsa Amini: Iran's Society in Limbo and Defiance

This week marks four years since the outbreak of a struggle that became the point of no return in Iranian society's battle against the Islamic regime.

On September 16, 2022, Mahsa (Jina) Amini, a 22-year-old Kurdish-Iranian woman, was arrested by the morality police in Tehran for allegedly failing to properly wear her hijab. Taken to a police station, according to testimonies from other women, she was severely beaten until she collapsed. Mahsa was hospitalized and died two days later. The regime claimed she died of heart failure, but the public knew the truth.

Her tragic death under the watch of oppressive security organs immediately sparked one of the most turbulent waves of public anger in the history of the Islamic Republic—the first to break the barrier of fear.

During these protests, the slogan "Woman, Life, Freedom" (Zan, Zendegi, Azadi) was born, symbolizing perhaps more than anything the profound transformation undergoing Iranian society: shifting from a conservative-patriarchal society to one where women pioneer and fight for their right to live by free choice.

537 protesters lost their lives in that struggle as the regime fought back with brutal violence and live ammunition. This protest created a new status quo between citizens and the regime, as Iranian society entered a period of incubation where the collective consciousness underwent an irreversible metamorphosis.

Another dramatic, horrific, and shaking turning point occurred in January of this year, when Iranians from all over the country and all walks of life erupted in an unprecedented wave of protests against the regime. These were the most powerful demonstrations where all barriers between the people and the branches of government completely collapsed.

The scale of the disaster during these events was unbearable. In fact, to this day, no one knows the exact figures for certain, but even the regime was forced to half-admit that the death toll may have crossed the 30,000 threshold. This wave of protests continues to be accompanied by staggering numbers of arrests and executions never seen before, profoundly deepening the river of blood currently separating Iranian society from the establishment.

Breaking the Psychological Glass Ceiling of Helplessness

Yet the greatest achievement of these dramatic moments is not measured solely in visible changes in the public sphere, but first and foremost in shattering the psychological glass ceiling of helplessness. For decades, the regime cultivated a sense of absolute helplessness among the public—the perception that the arms of oppression are all-powerful and that any resistance is destined to fail.

The moment millions took to the streets facing live fire without fear smashed this myth to pieces. Even when people seemingly return to routine or are forced to physically bow before state violence, the demand for justice, a life of free choice, and disgust for the existing regime constantly stand before their eyes.

Thus, the complex psychology of a society in limbo is created. On one hand, there is deep exhaustion: economic collapse, international isolation, digital surveillance in the style of "Big Brother," and the heavy blood price creating immense psychological pressure. However, this exhaustion does not indicate a return to old obedience; rather, it exists alongside a consciousness that refuses to accept the establishment's legitimacy any longer. The expectation of change has ceased to be a mere political matter and has become an integral part of the individual's identity, especially for a young generation that does not speak the language of the 1979 revolution at all.

Looking Ahead to Iran's Future

Looking forward to Iran's future, the ruling equation itself is facing a profound transformation. In the past, it was Ali Khamenei alone who exclusively authorized ruthless harm to citizens to save the regime at any cost; today, the leadership itself is undergoing structural and cognitive changes under unprecedented attrition while the incoming Supreme Leader is not yet visible to the public.

Thus, a regime is created that loses the moral trust of its people, relying solely on mass terror and bloodshed, transforming into an institution operating on borrowed time.

The relative quiet currently prevailing on Iran's streets is not a quiet of resignation, but a quiet of gathering and mental preparation. The embers are glowing beneath the ash: in cemeteries, many citizens still mourn the loss of their loved ones from the early-year protests, while galloping inflation creates economic collapse and other ills accompanying the average Iranian citizen's daily routine.

Yet the knowledge that the current reality is temporary has become a mental anchor for a society waiting for its next window of opportunity. Four years ago, it was the death of Mahsa Amini that marked the first moment creating a head-on collision between an unbearable reality and a localized spark. This dynamic is bound to return and ignite an uncontainable response at any moment from a vigilant public that has lost its fear and trust.

Dana Tzemach is an independent researcher, lecturer, and expert on Iranian society, focusing on grassroots protest movements, women, and Gen Z dynamics in the Islamic Republic.