The forecast for an "unusual rain" ended in a drizzle: Why the rare system bypassed Israel
After forecasts of heavy rainfall and flooding, the rain event ended in most areas with only a few millimeters. The Meteorological Service explains that the center of the unusual upper-level trough shifted north, directing heavy rains toward Syria and Lebanon. In Israel, unusual winds and high waves were recorded, and temperatures on Mount Hermon dropped to 8 degrees.
Although rain continues to fall locally today (Sunday), and was even documented in Netanya during the evening hours, the weather event that had been marked as particularly unusual in recent days ended with precipitation amounts much lower than initial forecasts. According to a summary from the Meteorological Service, from Saturday evening until Sunday morning, local, mostly light rains fell in the north and center of the country, accumulating to only 2 to 4 mm in the wettest spots. The highest amount was measured in Misgav Am at 3.7 mm.
The Meteorological Service emphasizes that the rain event itself was not unique, as similar or more significant events have occurred about 20 times over the last 70 summer seasons. Only in the last decade have three more significant summer rain events occurred—in July 2021, August 2022, and August 2023. However, the combination of two such events in the same summer, with one including double-digit precipitation, is rare, having occurred only in 1957, 1971, and 1995.
Why the forecast changed
The discrepancy stemmed from a small but significant shift in the path of the upper-level trough. The trough reached the northeast Mediterranean with cold air in the middle atmosphere (5–6 km high). While this was expected to create instability over Israel, the center of the trough shifted slightly north as it approached. This changed the pressure map and air convergence, causing the developed cloud cover to form primarily north of Israel.
In the Gulf of Iskenderun, western Syria, and northern Lebanon, storm clouds developed, bringing tens of millimeters of rain, hail, and urban flooding. In Israel, the rain fell from thinner clouds, characteristic of typical summer events.
Winds and sea conditions
Despite the disappointing rainfall, the influence of the trough was clear in the wind speeds. Strong winds for the summer season blew across the country yesterday, with constant speeds of about 50 km/h and gusts reaching 70 km/h at some mountain stations. Ma'ale Gilboa recorded a gust of 72 km/h, Itamar 69 km/h, and Safed (Mount Canaan) 68 km/h.
In Sodom, a gust of 68 km/h was the highest measured in August since the automatic anemometer was installed 25 years ago. The sea became rough, with significant wave heights reaching two meters and maximums hitting three meters or more. Since automatic recording began in 2003, only one similar case has been recorded in August (2011).
Temperature extremes
The system created exceptional temperature gaps. Strong winds descending the Judean Mountains toward the Dead Sea heated up, reaching 44.8 degrees in Sodom—the highest temperature there this August. Conversely, in the mountains, it was cooler; the Hermon station near the upper cable car recorded 8 degrees at night, the lowest temperature measured in August since the station was established 20 years ago.
Forecast for the coming days
Temperatures are expected to rise gradually. By Wednesday, further warming is expected, especially in the mountains and interior, where heavy to extreme heat loads will prevail. A slight drop in temperatures is expected on Thursday, though extreme heat will persist in those areas.
