Global gamblers bet 100 million shekels on Gadi Eisenkot on prediction markets
According to the latest data from the American prediction market platform "Kalshi", former Chief of Staff and minister Gadi Eisenkot is opening a significant gap over his competitors, jumping to a 59% chance of winning the position. Similar results are also seen on "Polymarket".
The election campaign in Israel ahead of 2026 is heating up, but local polls are struggling to draw a stable picture in light of the political upheavals in the country. However, far from the polling stations of Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, in the international and digital trading arena, the picture looks sharp, clear, and backed by a great deal of money. New data coming from two prominent prediction market platforms, where traders invest real capital on the results of global political events, point to a dramatic trend regarding the identity of the next leader of the State of Israel.
According to the latest data from the American prediction market platform "Kalshi", former Chief of Staff and minister Gadi Eisenkot is opening a significant gap over his competitors, jumping to a 59% chance of winning the position. These numbers illustrate not only the drastic strengthening of Eisenkot in the eyes of foreign investors, but also the weakening of the incumbent Prime Minister. Benjamin Netanyahu receives only 28% on the Kalshi betting exchange. Far behind, with a mere 9%, trails former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett.
This trend is not a one-off event limited to just one platform. On "Polymarket", the popular prediction platform based on cryptocurrencies, the picture is remarkably similar and complements the data from Kalshi. According to the data, Eisenkot reaches over 56% on Polymarket and is currently at exactly double the percentage compared to Netanyahu. These consistent data from the two central arenas constitute a clear expression of confidence by the international trading community in Eisenkot's chances of occupying the Prime Minister's chair after the 2026 elections.
The bet on the identity of Israel's next Prime Minister is not an amateur matter for prediction traders, and it turns out that this is an especially hot and bustling trading market. According to the accumulated data, the trading market for the specific bet on the next Prime Minister already stands at a financial volume estimated at about 100 million shekels. This huge sum testifies to the great global interest in Israeli politics and the willingness of investors, both small and large, to risk significant capital based on their geopolitical analysis.
It is important to understand that prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are not traditional public opinion polls based on telephone samples of local respondents. These systems operate as a full-fledged free exchange, where stock prices reflecting the probability of victory in percentages are determined solely by the wisdom of the crowd and the money actually invested in the various positions. When traders buy contracts, they do so out of a cold economic risk assessment, devoid of sentiment or party affiliation. Will the wisdom of the crowd of prediction market sharks finally manage to predict the reality that will be determined at the polling stations in Israel? We will likely only discover the answer to that on election day. But as of now, the millions that have already been invested point in one clear direction.
