The warnings on the President's desk: Details of the explicit warnings Donald Trump received before the war with Iran
According to a Wall Street Journal investigation, just days before the war began, the President was warned that killing Khamenei would not collapse the regime, but would bring to power an even more militant leadership that would accelerate nuclear weapons development. Despite intelligence warnings, Tehran's threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, and expert assessments that an attack would turn the nuclear program into an "insurance policy," Donald Trump chose a campaign that was planned for six weeks but has been dragging on for six months.
During the decisive discussions in the Oval Office before the start of the war against Iran, one warning was heard from the American intelligence community: striking the head of the pyramid in Tehran would not lead to a breakthrough, but would achieve the exact opposite result. An extensive investigation by the Wall Street Journal reveals how US President Donald Trump chose to dismiss the explicit warning that the elimination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would lead to the rise of an even more extreme and hardline regime, which would be willing and determined to obtain nuclear weapons.
The warning in the Oval Office: Eliminating the leader will lead to radicalization
According to the report, just days before the start of the attack on February 28, Donald Trump summoned the heads of the security establishment to decide whether a large-scale attack could indeed collapse the regime and dismantle its nuclear program. In this discussion, the then-Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, presented the assessments of the US intelligence community. According to officials familiar with the details of the meeting, Gabbard clearly clarified to Donald Trump that the elimination of Iran's Supreme Leader would highly likely lead to the rise of an even harderline regime.
The American intelligence warned that this alternative leadership would be more committed to obtaining nuclear weapons, would act immediately to block the Strait of Hormuz, and would trigger counter-attacks on American bases and forces in the region. At the same time, senior Pentagon officials warned of casualties and the depletion of ammunition stockpiles. However, Donald Trump, convinced by the position of those who argued that Iran was at a historical low and by the determined attack plans of Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and the military chiefs, dismissed the concerns.
The internal intelligence warnings in Washington matched a long series of public warnings that had been heard for some time. Officials in Iran itself had stated and repeated in the past that any direct attack against them would lead immediately to the closing of the Strait of Hormuz and damage to shipping and energy routes. Alongside this, international experts and commentators had warned for a long time that a large-scale military attack would lead to the opposite result from the one it was intended for: such an attack would demonstrate to the leadership in Tehran that it has no other protection, and would push it to cross the threshold and develop a nuclear bomb as soon as possible, as the ultimate insurance policy that would prevent future attacks and ensure the survival of the regime.
Reality on the ground: The Revolutionary Guards have strengthened, the war continues
In practice, as the Wall Street Journal describes, the forecasts and warnings have come true almost entirely. Although Ali Khamenei was eliminated by Israel shortly after the start of the war—an event that was met with applause at an event held by Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago—the regime did not collapse. Instead, his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, rose to power, and the Revolutionary Guards tightened their grip on the country, refusing to surrender and continuing to fire on merchant ships in the strait.
Six months after the start of the fighting, instead of a quick resolution within six weeks, the US is suffering 18 soldiers killed, 756 wounded, damage to bases, and the depletion of weapon stocks and oil reserves, alongside about 3,000 Iranian deaths and turmoil in the energy market. After a series of ceasefire agreements collapsed, the President was forced to retreat from his military plans and turn to a campaign of sanctions and naval blockade, in the hope of bringing about the regime's surrender through economic means.
