The deals, the registered members, and the large gaps: the power map in Likud is revealed

Mapping the actual results of the Likud primaries, based on data published by the party and reports in the media, provides a glimpse into the balance of power within the party: where the power of organized groups and "deals" stood out, and where the power of registered members who do not belong to these groups — known in Likud as "free votes" — was expressed.

However, two caveats must be added to the analysis. First, objections to the primary results have still been filed with the party's court. Second, Likud allows registered members to vote at any polling station across the country, regardless of their place of residence. Therefore, the mapping is based on the polling stations where the votes were cast and not necessarily on the voters' place of residence, and biases in one direction or another are possible.

To try and map the balance of power, we examined several types of polling stations. Among others, polling stations were checked in cities identified with Likud, where mayors are attributed significant power among registered members, such as Netivot and Nof HaGalil. The goal was to examine the gap between candidates identified with organized groups and those considered strong among free voters.

In addition, polling stations were checked in Druze and Haredi settlements, in an attempt to understand the voting patterns among these groups, as well as polling stations in Judea and Samaria, to examine the power of Knesset members identified with the settlement movement. For comparison, the number of votes Likud received in those settlements in the 2022 Knesset elections was also checked.

The forces behind the primaries

Before entering the numbers, it is worth knowing some of the forces operating in Likud's internal politics. One of them is workers' committees in various workplaces, which encourage their members to register for the party, thus increasing their ability to influence elected officials and the political agenda.

The most prominent and well-known example is the Israel Aerospace Industries workers' committee, headed by Haim Katz. Katz has been successfully running in Likud primaries since 2003, and over the years has relied on a broad support mechanism of thousands of registered members.

Likud has about 140,000 voters in the primaries. According to estimates in the party, about half of them belong to organized groups and vote within the framework of "blocks". A source in Likud explains that alongside Knesset members who hold thousands of registered members, mayors with significant power in the census also operate. Among the examples he notes: Netivot Mayor Yehiel Zohar and Nof HaGalil Mayor Ronen Plot.

Another significant group is "My Likud" ("HaLikud Sheli"), composed of registered members residing in Judea and Samaria and supporters of the settlement enterprise, operating under the leadership of the head of the Samaria Regional Council, Yossi Dagan. As of the 2022 elections, the group had about 9,000 members — and was the largest among the active pressure groups in Likud in that election cycle. Alongside it also operates the "United Forum" ("Forum Melechadim"), whose stated goal is to influence Knesset members and ministers in the party to act to strengthen settlements in Judea and Samaria.

The gap between the organized and the free

In Netivot, Likud received 5,836 votes in the last Knesset elections. Mayor Yehiel Zohar is considered to have a significant census in the city. In the primary results at the polling station in the city, a prominent gap was recorded between different candidates: Minister Eli Cohen received 1,714 votes, Minister Nir Barkat 1,261, and MK David Bitan 1,507.

In contrast, MK Tali Gottlieb, considered strong among unorganized registered members, received only 381 votes, and MK Moshe Saada, who is also considered strong among the "free votes", received 376 votes.

A similar trend was recorded in Nof HaGalil, where Likud received 5,872 votes in the last Knesset elections, and Mayor Ronen Plot is also considered to have significant power among registered members. Eli Cohen received 1,579 votes at the polling station, David Bitan 1,556, and Nir Barkat 1,112. On the other hand, Gottlieb received only 111 votes and Saada 87.

The gaps at the two polling stations may illustrate the power of organized groups: candidates considered strong among those groups won a significantly higher number of votes compared to candidates whose power is attributed more to free registered members.

Druze polling stations: a different picture

In Druze settlements, a different picture emerges, which may indicate, among other things, the power of Knesset members and ministers who have cultivated ties with members of the community over the years. Also prominent is the gap between the number of participants in the primaries and the number of Likud voters in the Knesset elections in those settlements.

In Beit Jann, where Likud received only 275 votes in the last Knesset elections, Eli Cohen received 361 votes in the primaries. Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana, a prominent and popular figure in the party, received only 33 votes. David Bitan received 355 votes, Nir Barkat 40, Gila Gamliel 564, and Amit Halevi 456.

In Kisra, where Likud received 275 votes in the last elections, Eli Cohen and Amir Ohana stood out with 490 votes each, while Nir Barkat received 498 votes.

Haredi cities: religion, deals, or a combination of them?

In Haredi cities, the picture is more complex. On one hand, religious candidates on the list won a significant number of votes; on the other hand, the data may also teach about the power of organized registered member groups.

At the polling station checked in a city where Likud received 2,969 votes in the last Knesset elections, Minister Shlomo Karhi received 415 votes and Moshe Saada 100. Eli Cohen received 469 votes, Nir Barkat 82, and Amir Ohana 126.

In Elad, 661 registered members voted in the primaries at the polling station checked. Karhi received 138 votes, Saada 77, Eli Cohen 247, Barkat 29, and Ohana 111.

The data does not allow determining on its own what was behind each vote — religious affiliation, the power of organized groups, or other considerations — but they point to a pattern different from that seen in some of the polling stations in the large Likud cities.

Settlement: an advantage for those identified with Judea and Samaria

At the polling stations in Judea and Samaria, the power of Knesset members identified with the settlement movement and who dealt with issues concerning it during their tenure stood out.

In Beit El, where Likud received 261 votes in the last Knesset elections, Shlomo Karhi received 183 votes, Moshe Saada 155, Amit Halevi 208, and Avichai Boaron 200. In contrast, David Bitan received only seven votes, Nir Barkat 53, Amir Ohana 73, and Eli Cohen 109.

In Kiryat Arba, where Likud received 693 votes in the last elections, Karhi received 133 votes, Saada 146, Amit Halevi 167, and Boaron stood out especially with 418 votes. On the other hand, Bitan received 256 votes, Barkat 273, Ohana 55, and Eli Cohen 361.

The results at the polling stations checked present the complexity of the Likud primaries: alongside candidates who enjoy broad support among free registered members, organized groups, local and sectoral power centers, and ideological groups have the ability to influence the result significantly — and sometimes create very large gaps between polling stations.

Likud responded: "Likud registered members chose an excellent list. The Likud team led by Prime Minister Netanyahu will lead to a great victory and the establishment of a broad national government immediately after the elections. This is the only way to prevent Eisenkot and Lieberman from establishing a left-wing government with Yair Golan and the Arab parties."