Mojtaba's Secret Escalation Plan: How Iran Prepares for the Next Confrontation
The 60-day deadline from the memorandum of understanding has passed, and the Wall Street Journal has revealed the hardline leaders' plan for escalation while negotiations with the US are ongoing. Intelligence indicates that Iran used the "window of opportunity" to rebuild its missile arsenal, with leadership asserting that "the main war has not yet begun."
At midnight, the 60 days specified in the memorandum of understanding signed in June between the US and Iran passed, during which the parties were expected to formulate a final agreement to end the war. However, the memorandum has effectively collapsed. While the American administration focused on opening the Strait of Hormuz, hardline leaders in Tehran had other plans.
According to Iranian and Arab officials who spoke with the Wall Street Journal, these leaders believed the agreement was merely an attempt by the US and Israel to reduce pressure on the global economy and buy time for a larger attack later. Instead of trusting the talks, they spent the last two months preparing for a larger battle. Their efforts include granting more control to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), appointing veterans of the war with Iraq to key positions, expanding counter-intelligence operations, and increasing the production of missiles and drones.
A Strategic Shift
The leadership quickly seized the initiative, attacking ships to tighten Iran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz and expanding the battlefield to the Red Sea, which Saudi Arabia had used to bypass Iran's control of the Persian Gulf. Arab intelligence officials have gathered evidence—including communications between Iran and partner militias in Yemen and Iraq—of a strategic shift within the country's hardline leadership and the preparation of their forces for an expanded war.
Iran's leaders increasingly speak of "offensive actions on enemy territory." Their ultimate goal is to cause "enough pain" to ensure that the attacks Iran suffered during last year's 12-day war do not repeat themselves.
"There is also a prevailing view in Iran that the main war has not yet begun," said Mohammad Hassan Sangtarash, a defense analyst based in Tehran close to the Iranian government. "What we have seen so far is increasingly interpreted through the lens of 'salami slicing' tactics—limited and gradual escalation designed to weaken capabilities before a larger confrontation."
