The Sophisticated Jihadist: Syrian President Arms Himself Under the Eyes of the West
Alongside the Syrian president's attempts to be accepted by the leaders of the modern world, he continues to arm himself in every way. The man who turned almost overnight from a leader of an Al-Qaeda branch into a leader of a Middle Eastern state continues to raise doubts about his intentions. In Israel, they are trying to decipher where the neighbor from the Syrian border is heading.
In the defense establishment, there is concern about the deep currents in Syria and the processes being led by Syrian President Ahmad al-Shara in the recovering country. A senior security official told Walla that the Syrian president is deeply rooted in his past ideologies as a radical jihad leader. At the same time, he is operating in a "super-sophisticated" manner to advance his regime's interests before the US, the moderate Sunni Arab states, Europe, and other countries.
"He knows how to speak to every audience and person individually and adapt himself to the situation," the official explained, adding about his overarching goal: "He is working to expand the international legitimacy of his regime in order to separate himself from his image from the past and prepare the ground for bringing countries and giant corporations to invest in Syria, similar to Bashar Assad at the beginning of his path. Therefore, stability in the country is critical for him."
Alongside this, the source of concern in the defense establishment stems mainly from his relentless effort to arm himself. Al-Shara is interested in rehabilitating military bases and acquiring weapon systems that will limit the freedom of movement of the IDF, with an emphasis on the Israeli Air Force. Among other things, he continues to allow elements hostile to Israel to establish themselves on Syrian territory under the headings of "cooperation" and "consultation."
For the Syrian president, it is not just about the desire to acquire and deploy air defense systems in order to pose a challenge to Air Force aircraft. Rather, one of the most worrying processes is the race to rehabilitate ground forces in various frameworks: companies, battalions, and brigades, and the next stage also includes the establishment of divisions. The senior official said that his forces are not at a high level of competence, but he has already carried out several brigade exercises. "We do not take any process lightly. We have already seen what pickup trucks can do in Syria and Iraq and also, and perhaps mainly, in the Gaza Strip."
The relationship between the current Syrian regime and Turkey looks rosy from the outside, but in practice, the official says, there are many complexities between al-Shara and his people and the people of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Al-Shara enjoyed their support in the past, including in recent days, but Erdogan wants to collect the "payment" in exchange for assistance in toppling the Assad regime. Among other things, the Turkish president knows that such a thing would also strengthen his status before US President Donald Trump. But not all figures in al-Shara's circle are fond of the Turks and their patronizing approach on certain issues, especially in light of a specific incident in the past, even before the rebel forces managed to conquer Damascus.
In addition, the official noted that in the al-Shara regime there is a very great hostility towards Iran and Hezbollah, which at the moment has not yet been translated into military activity, except for restricting the movements of Shiites in the Syrian space and attempts to strengthen enforcement on the Syrian-Lebanese border. This issue is defined by the Lebanese army and Hezbollah as a minefield, since there is always a fear in the background that if a civil war breaks out in the Land of the Cedars, al-Shara will try to enter Lebanese territory. The Syrian president is not only interested in appropriating territories for himself, but his desire is to take revenge on Hezbollah for its involvement in the Syrian civil war.
Another issue that worries the defense establishment in Israel is the scope of terrorist activity in southern Syria. There are those who would argue that this is a direct continuation of the civil war and attempts by clans, sects, and influential forces to reshape the space. The regime opposes these processes but does not necessarily succeed in reducing them. Therefore, there is a very high level of alertness in the IDF for any occurrence.
Ultimately, the defense establishment understands that al-Shara's Syria is still in the process of being reshaped. The Syrian president seeks to stabilize his rule, gain international legitimacy, and reopen his country to investments from the West and the Arab world. But at the same time, as he rehabilitates the army and continues the arms race, in Israel they are still trying to understand what exactly the intentions of the former jihadist are. But the main question that arises is: where is the man who replaced the explosive belts and uniforms with a tie and suit heading?
