Conflict with Iran may be inevitable: "The only way for them to get out of the deadlock"
Dr. Raz Zimmt, head of the Iran program at the INSS Institute, identifies a deliberate radicalization in Tehran's positions and assesses that another conflict with the USA is possible. According to him, one of the paths for escalation may pass through Hezbollah and Lebanon, and not necessarily through a direct attack on Israel.
Will Iran initiate a military campaign against the USA in the Strait of Hormuz, and how is it related to us? Dr. Raz Zimmt, head of the Iran program at the INSS Institute, identifies a deliberate escalation on the part of Tehran and warns that the winds of war may return to our region. He discussed this today, Tuesday, with Anat Davidov and Gideon Oko on 103fm radio.
Zimmt identifies a radicalization in Iranian positions:
"Both the statements coming from Tehran and the new demands that the Iranians are putting on the table include demands that it is clear to everyone that no one has any intention of accepting. For example, a demand for a ceasefire on all fronts, including the Lebanese and Palestinian fronts, as a precondition for opening the Strait of Hormuz. All these moves definitely indicate that, at least in Tehran, the assessment is that in the end, there will be a conflict or another round with the Americans."
His conclusion is that one must prepare for another conflict:
"It is not certain that this time the Americans will initiate it. In Iran, they talk about the fact that the only way to get out of the deadlock is through provocations, like the one we saw yesterday with the takeover of an Emirati tanker. Perhaps later we will see further steps."
"Hezbollah is waiting for a green light from Tehran to escalate"
Should we prepare for a surprise Iranian attack? "In our context, the main thing is not necessarily a preemptive Iranian strike on Israel, but some kind of escalation that will start, for example, in Lebanon," the Iran expert assessed. "In recent days, there have been several reports that one of the options that will be in the hands of the Iranians to bring about a renewed escalation will be to bring Hezbollah into this issue."
He further added: "There is even a report this week in the Lebanese media that Hezbollah is waiting for a kind of green light from Tehran to escalate attacks against IDF forces in southern Lebanon even further. Here too, the proxies are part of the means available to the Iranians."
However, he emphasized: "The main escalation that they are talking about in Iran right now is not necessarily against Israel, but it is mainly against the American forces that are enforcing the naval blockade, and their allies in the Gulf - first and foremost, the UAE."
