The move that transferred Israel's national security to Donald Trump
The hidden strategy of the US President, the 15-point plan in Gaza, and the agreement to which Israel is barely a party. How Israel outsourced its security policy — how it works, and what should be done? Major General (res.) Tamir Hayman in a special commentary column.
What does Donald Trump really want in the Middle East? The USA is working vigorously to implement his vision — in Gaza, in Syria, and in Lebanon. Some claim that Donald Trump has no strategy. History will judge that, but for now, actions on the ground suggest otherwise. Donald Trump is shaping the region according to fairly clear policy lines. True, his perception is sometimes flawed because it does not take religion and ideology into account enough. And the fact that he tweets contradictory messages at a dizzying pace does not help to understand the picture. But he has a policy. And it directly affects Israel.
Because Israel has, in fact, agreed to an American outsourcing of its national security policy. This is a dramatic development: the American vision is actually shaping Israel's national security policy. Not Jerusalem, Washington. Examining the implementation of this vision in Gaza is a case study that will teach us what it will look like in the future in Lebanon and in Syria.
How the 20-point plan became a reality
The 20-point plan is, in fact, an implementation of the Israeli government's decision regarding the "day after" in Gaza — a decision that was made even before the ground maneuver and remained on the shelf until Donald Trump enforced it from the outside. The outline approved by the war cabinet determined that after the defeat of Hamas, civil control in Gaza would be transferred to a technocratic administration not connected to either Hamas or the Palestinian Authority, and the initiative to expand the Abraham Accords would be renewed.
What caused this to happen right now? A combination of three things: the Israeli plan to conquer Gaza City, the pressure of the hostages' families on the president, and the Israeli attack in Doha that undermined the confidence of the Gulf states. This sequence led Donald Trump to enforce the plan that eventually led to the release of the hostages. The plan also included the establishment of a dedicated international management council for Gaza (Board of Peace, in short: BoP), whose role is to oversee the technocratic administration that will replace Hamas in power (National Administrative Council of Gaza, NCAG). This administration will be assisted by international security forces to maintain law and order and to oversee the demilitarization of the Strip (International Stabilization Force, ISF).
The 15-point plan: an agreement without Israel's participation
Unlike the 20-point plan, which Israel signed, this is an agreement from which it is almost completely absent (except for cabinet approval for the entry of foreign military forces into Israeli territory — approval received on July 26). The 15-point plan is an agreement between the Board of Peace and Hamas, intended to convince the organization to agree to the entry of the technocratic government.
Beyond general talk, there are three real practical problems in the plan:
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Qatar and Turkey are part of the verification mechanism that is supposed to report on the dismantling of Hamas weapons — a report that will oblige Israel to a parallel withdrawal. The fear: that they are actually interested in maintaining Hamas's status in the Strip.
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Hamas weapons will be deposited with a Palestinian security authority whose composition and authority are unclear. According to Hamas members in public statements, personal weapons — including charges and grenade launchers — are not included in the deposit at all.
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It is unclear who exactly will maintain law and order in the Strip. The principled agreement to integrate Hamas members into this force (subject to security clearance and handing over weapons) could create exactly what they wanted to prevent: a technocratic administration whose internal security force is staffed, in practice, by Hamas.
Five recommendations for Israel
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Explain. The Israeli government must better explain to the public the policy, its implementation on the ground, and the opportunities inherent in it.
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Cooperate. Israel does not have many friends in the USA, and losing the president's support at such a critical moment is too dangerous.
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Accelerate. Donald Trump's outline converts the IDF's military achievements into a political achievement. The withdrawal process is gradual, conditional on verification, and can be stopped at any stage.
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Balance. Statements that help the campaign in the short term could harm relations with the US president in the medium term.
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Supervise. Israel chose to outsource its national security to Washington. The question that remains is whether it will also know how to supervise the supplier.
Major General (res.) Tamir Hayman is a former head of Aman and a former commander of the Northern Corps. He currently heads the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS).
