China is watching: The American weakness exposed in the war

Against the backdrop of the ongoing tension with Iran, the heavy burden placed on the US Navy has made headlines in the US in recent days, following a series of reports on the difficult conditions on the aircraft carrier 'Abraham Lincoln'. The Pentagon's decision to replace it with another aircraft carrier is now leading to an unusual situation, but one that has already occurred several times in the last two years due to the demands of the war in the Middle East, in which the US is left without an aircraft carrier in the Pacific Ocean, while in the background there is increasing Chinese military activity against US allies in the region.

The 'Lincoln' was supposed to return home as early as May, but its stay at sea was extended to participate in the war. The 5,000 sailors and marines on board are in their ninth month at sea, after more than 250 consecutive days without docking at a port, a record for an aircraft carrier in the modern era. In recent weeks, shortages of food, water contamination, and disruptions in the sewage and mail systems have been exposed on board. Two leading military newspapers in the US, the 'Navy Times' and 'Stars and Stripes', interviewed family members of the crew who told of attempts by sailors to jump into the water against a backdrop of exhaustion and burnout. The Navy denied this and stated that no increase in suicidal attempts had been observed on board.

Families of the service members and members of Congress warned of a worsening mental health crisis, and about 200 family members who gathered at the naval base in San Diego were angry at the acting Secretary of the Navy, Hung Cao, and demanded answers from him. The 'New York Times' reported over the weekend that one of the main reasons for the difficult situation on the 'Lincoln' is the Iranian strike on the naval base in Bahrain on the first day of the war, which destroyed large parts of it and disabled the Navy's central logistics hub in the region. Following the attack, the Pentagon was forced to turn the Diego Garcia base in the Indian Ocean into an alternative supply center, which is about 3,500 kilometers away from the area of operations in the Gulf of Oman.

But the 'Lincoln' is not alone. The aircraft carrier 'Gerald Ford' returned home in mid-May after a deployment of 326 days, the longest for an American aircraft carrier since the Vietnam War, even if it did manage to dock in ports during it, unlike the 'Lincoln'. During the deployment, in which it participated in the fighting, and also in the capture of the then-leader of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro, a fire broke out on the ship in the laundry room, which forced it to turn back and return to the Mediterranean for repairs, leaving hundreds of sailors without beds to sleep in.

The acting Secretary of the Navy, Hung Cao, addressed the issue on Friday in a statement he released over the weekend:

"The crew of the 'Abraham Lincoln' performed the mission in the best possible way, and they will return home soon as part of a planned rotation. The deployment was extended because the mission required it. Deployments are a difficult thing, and fighting makes them even harder. War is hell, and routine is broken in it."

The commander of the US Central Command (CENTCOM), Admiral Brad Cooper, also released a statement after his visit to the ship: "The time I spent on board the 'Abraham Lincoln' yesterday was inspiring. I wish every American could see the crew in action. Here is an important fact: out of the 11 active aircraft carriers of the Navy, the 'Lincoln' currently has one of the lowest numbers of cases related to mental health." Cooper added that "this does not mean that everything is perfect," and that prolonged service at sea "is not for everyone."

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Vacuum in the East

The timing for the American vacuum in the Pacific may be particularly problematic: China held military exercises east of Taiwan last week together with Indonesia, for the first time in cooperation with a foreign navy, is escalating rhetoric against Tokyo, and is not shying away from limited confrontations with the Philippines over disputed territories. This picture makes it difficult to maintain the thesis that has guided Washington in recent years, according to which the American center of gravity is moving from the Middle East to face China. In practice, since 2023, the carriers have been drawn again and again in the opposite direction, and this is happening at a time when the industrial gap between the two superpowers is only growing.

According to an assessment by US Naval Intelligence, cited in an analysis by the CSIS institute, China's shipbuilding capacity is about 230 times greater than that of the US, and Beijing has dozens of commercial shipyards that are larger and more productive than the largest American shipyard. China has three aircraft carriers in service, against 11 American ones, but according to a US Department of Defense report to Congress, it intends to add six more by 2035. Furthermore, while the American military is deployed around the world and is committed to the defense of NATO countries and global deterrence, the Chinese navy is almost entirely focused on the arena near its borders.

It would be far-fetched to assume that China will exploit the situation in the immediate term to act militarily against Taiwan, the neighboring island that it considers its own, but the absence of the aircraft carrier provides Beijing with another opportunity to demonstrate power. "They are using this as part of the narrative, to prove to the Philippines, Japan, Indonesia, and others that the US is no longer the dominant force in the Western Pacific," said Bryan Clark, a former US Navy officer and defense analyst at the Hudson Institute, to the Associated Press. "They simply prefer that countries in the region decide that China is the more powerful superpower, and that the US is no longer capable of guaranteeing their security."

Industrial gap

The US Navy has 11 aircraft carriers, but at any given moment only two or three of them are in operational deployment. The rest are in maintenance, training, or refits. The "hole" in the Far East is expected to end within a few months, but pushing the Navy to the limit is expected to take its toll in the future when they will be required to spend time in shipyards in the US for repairs and refits. "We will reach a situation of 'maintenance debt' that we will have to pay in the coming years," said Clark, "Most likely we will have a smaller presence of aircraft carriers than in previous years, because they will be in line to enter the shipyard."

There is no doubt that the administration of Donald Trump is aware of this problem, and increasing the production capacity of vessels has been at the center of some of his moves — when an opening was even created for foreign shipyards to join in the production of American vessels. But Donald Trump is busy not only with how many aircraft carriers the Navy has, but also with how they look. According to the 'Washington Post', he wants the new ships to resemble the aircraft carriers of the World War II era, and for this purpose, the relocation of the command tower, the "island", from the stern of the ship to its center is being examined. A review from his first term already determined that this would cost billions and delay construction. Donald Trump also signed a memorandum ordering the Navy to replace the electromagnetic launch system on future carriers with a steam system similar to the previous generation of aircraft carriers.