"The ultimate defense card": The attack on nuclear facilities led to a new line of thinking in Iran
At a National Security Conference, experts warned that strikes on Iran damaged its nuclear program but did not eliminate it. They discussed the shift in Tehran, where nuclear weapons are increasingly viewed as a necessity, and the dangers of an "endless war" mindset.
Against the backdrop of efforts to renew contacts between the USA and Iran and concerns over the continued advancement of the nuclear program, despite strikes carried out by Israel and the USA over the past year, experts on Iranian affairs warned that the threat is far from disappearing. In a panel moderated by Col. (res.) Asaf Orion, as part of the National Security Conference of Yedioth Ahronoth and the INSS, experts warned that Iran's nuclear program has been damaged, but not eliminated.
Avner Vilan, a former senior official in the security establishment, stated that recent operations damaged main enrichment facilities and part of the weapons development infrastructure. However, he emphasized that Iran still possesses about 450 kg of uranium enriched to 60%, centrifuges that were not destroyed, and the knowledge required to continue the program. He also referred to the "Mahush Mountain," a new underground facility built at a depth that does not allow for damage using bunker-buster bombs. "There is no single component that, if we hit it, the Iranian nuclear program will disappear," he said.
Sima Shine, former head of the research division at the Mossad and currently a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), warned that the discourse in Iran has changed following recent wars. "The dominant voices today in Iran say that nuclear weapons are a necessity," she said. According to her, if Iran maintains its stockpile of enriched uranium and operates advanced centrifuges, it could reach nuclear capability within weeks, though there is no certainty that Tehran will indeed choose this path.
Danny Citrinowicz, former head of the Iran branch at Aman and currently a senior researcher at the INSS, believes that Israel did not go to war because Iran was about to produce nuclear weapons immediately. "Whoever claims that Iran was about to launch a bomb towards Tel Aviv — this has no connection to reality," he said. According to him, the attack was an exploitation of a strategic opportunity, but it did not change Iranian motivation. "The leadership in Iran understands that nuclear weapons are the ultimate card that will protect it from a future attack," he added.
Vilan disagreed with this assessment, arguing that on the eve of the attack, Iran was "too close for comfort" from Israel's perspective. According to him, the combination of accelerating uranium enrichment, the renewal of activity in weapons development, and statements by senior officials in Iran justified military action. "We moved the ball away from the goal, but the game is definitely continuing," he said.
Participants also addressed the possibility of a new agreement. Shine estimated that the gaps between the sides are still large. At the end of the discussion, participants were asked how Israel should act moving forward. Vilan called for combining intelligence, covert activity, military pressure, and diplomacy. Shine warned against the perception of an endless war against Iran: "If the regime in Iran does not fall even in 50 years, this must not be the future of the State of Israel. This is a very dangerous way of thinking."
