Internal Polarization Threatens Israel More Than External Foes, JPPI Report Warns

Israel begins the 5787 Hebrew calendar year with clear military and regional superiority, yet faces unprecedented existential threats from both within and outside its borders. This assessment is the core finding of the annual 2026 report published by the Jewish People Policy Institute (JPPI).

The report, led by Yaakov Katz, Prof. Yedidia Stern, and former ambassadors Stuart Eizenstat and Dennis Ross, provides an in-depth analysis across six dimensions. It warns of unprecedented erosion in Israel's legitimacy, a widening rift with the Jewish Diaspora, and internal polarization that risks escalating into civil violence.

The Greatest Threat Is Internal

One of the most alarming findings concerns Israel's social resilience: 55% of Israelis point to internal polarization and disputes as the most dangerous challenge to the state's survival—significantly higher than concerns over the Iranian nuclear threat (23%) or the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (18%).

Furthermore, six out of ten Israelis believe there is a real danger of bloodshed and civil war. Ahead of the upcoming elections, 78% express deep concern over social cohesion, driven largely by fears of mutual delegitimization where no camp will accept the ballot results. The religious-secular divide has also surged as a primary flashpoint, fueled by debates over military conscription exemptions and protests.

"Israel is stronger today, but military might is not an end in itself," warned JPPI President Prof. Yedidia Stern. "The true challenge is translating achievements into stable arrangements, international alliances, and internal resilience that will endure. Our test is not just against our enemies, but what reality we build at home."

Tactical Victories Without Strategic Horizons

Geostrategically, the report notes that the IDF has delivered heavy blows to Hamas and Hezbollah while severely damaging Iran's nuclear program, notably during Operation "Roaring Lion." However, these achievements remain unanchored by binding strategic frameworks, as Iran retains roughly half a ton of 60% enriched uranium without reliable oversight, and direct missile threats persist.

In relations with the United States, the report highlights growing fragility: while security integration remains tight through legislation like the NDAA, political erosion is mounting in both the progressive wing of the Democratic Party and the isolationist right of the Republican Party. Public trust among Israelis in U.S. President Donald Trump has also sharply declined from 34% in March to just 7% in July.

Beyond Lethal Antisemitism

Internationally, the institute warns that antisemitism has evolved into a systematic national security threat. While overall incident numbers have stabilized in some nations, the severity of violence has shattered records: the U.S. recorded a record 203 physical assaults, France saw 126, with severe events also reported in Britain and Canada.

Another alarming phenomenon is "limited visibility": 76% of European Jews and 55% of American Jews report concealing Jewish markers or avoiding community-affiliated locations. Antisemitism is also infiltrating artificial intelligence infrastructure and search engines, shaping the consciousness of younger generations.

Diaspora "Israelization" and Emigration

Demographically, the report highlights an unprecedented spike in emigration: the population of Israelis living abroad stands at approximately 755,000 (reaching roughly one million including their overseas-born children). These expatriates constitute between 7% and 15% of the total Jewish population in Germany and Britain. While they strengthen local communities, their departure deprives Israel of vital human capital.

Simultaneously, the rift between Israel and global Jewry deepens. Fewer Diaspora Jews view Israel as a moral exemplar, increasingly treating it as "just another nation" amid growing ambivalence over the human toll of the war.

Immediate Action Recommendations

In response, JPPI experts urge the government to take urgent steps:

• Designate antisemitism as a national security threat by establishing an inter-ministerial body for annual risk assessments.

• Mitigate AI biases through expert laboratories and multilingual databases to counter anti-Israel algorithmic skew.

• Establish an emergency absorption plan for 10,000 to 150,000 European immigrants within two years.

• Adopt a "slim constitution" to regulate governance rules and prevent irreversible constitutional fracture during upcoming elections.