Israel Meteorological Service Warns of Extreme Autumn Rainfall and Flooding Risk

Despite the ongoing summer heat, the Israel Meteorological Service (IMS) is already looking ahead to autumn and winter, issuing an unusual long-term forecast for the start of the rainy season. According to updated long-term models, Israel and the wider Middle East are heading toward an exceptionally wet season, with October, November, and December all projected to see above-average rainfall.

Extreme October Rainfall and Flood Warnings

The most unusual month in the forecast is October. Current projections indicate that rainfall during this month could reach up to twice the seasonal average. Because October rains are often characterized by high intensity and localized variability, the IMS warns of a high probability of urban flooding in coastal cities, as well as flash floods in the southern and eastern regions of the country.

This pattern of an active start to the season mirrors autumn 2015, which occurred during the strongest El Niño event prior to the current one. However, the IMS notes that nationwide rainfall during that period was much more moderate than what current models are predicting for the upcoming season.

Emergency Preparedness and New Forecasting Tools

In light of the extreme forecast, the IMS held an early virtual coordination meeting with various government ministries, emergency services, and rescue agencies, including emergency officials from the Ministry of National Security.

During the meeting, the IMS presented the wet forecast for the upcoming season, particularly its first half. Officials also introduced new forecasting and warning tools designed to help manage floods, inundations, and snow, alongside potential reference scenarios and methods to improve coordination during life-threatening weather events.

According to the IMS, closing the communication loop during dangerous weather events remains one of the primary vulnerabilities identified in past weather-related disasters in Western countries. The service plans to further tighten its coordination with relevant bodies in the coming days to ensure maximum readiness.

Current Heatwave Forecast

Before the seasonal shift, today will remain warmer than usual for this time of year. Temperatures will rise slightly, especially in the mountains and inland areas, with heavy to extreme heat loads felt across most regions.

Forecasted temperatures for today and tonight: