Israel Elections: Polls Project Sharp Gender Divide in Next Coalition

Israel's upcoming elections will determine not only which political bloc forms the next government, but also the level of female representation in the future coalition. A special analysis by the 5050 initiative based on current polling averages reveals a stark contrast depending on the election outcome.

Coalition Scenarios and Female Representation

According to the data, if the right-wing and ultra-Orthodox bloc forms the coalition, only seven women will serve within it. This would represent a 25-year low, dropping even further below the current coalition's tally of nine women, which had already marked the lowest figure since 1999. Conversely, should the change-bloc parties assemble the next government, an estimated 24 women are projected to serve in the coalition—marking an unprecedented historical high in the history of the Knesset.

One of the most striking findings concerns the ruling party. While seven women currently serve in the Likud faction, current polling averages predict only two to three female lawmakers will secure seats. This continues a steady downward trend in female representation for the party, which featured 10 women out of 32 MKs in the 23rd Knesset.

Party-by-Party Breakdown

Contrasting dynamics define the rest of the political map:

• Ultra-Orthodox Factions: Shas and United Torah Judaism will once again feature zero female lawmakers.

• Right-Wing and Secular Right: Otzma Yehudit and Yisrael Beytenu are projected to include two women each out of eight mandates, while Religious Zionism anticipates one woman out of six.

• Arab Parties: Each respective Arab list is projected to include a single female lawmaker.

• Centrist and Left-Wing Parties: The Yashar! party projects a full 50% gender parity with 11 women out of 22 lawmakers, a standard also maintained by The Democrats. The Be-Yachad list approaches a nearly 50% ratio.

"These elections will determine not only who manages the country, but also whether women are in the room where decisions are made," said Yael Yechieli, founder of the 5050 initiative. "The data shows that the change camp has advanced toward equality, while the current coalition continues its declining trend."

Overall, combining projected coalition and opposition figures, the upcoming Knesset is expected to feature 32 female members, representing a slight increase of three women compared to the outgoing parliament.