Health Ministry Sets First Long-Term National Targets for Medical Specialists by 2035
Israel's Ministry of Health has published its first national targets for medical specialists through 2035, seeking to overhaul manpower planning previously controlled by the Israel Medical Association.
The Ministry of Health has released its first national targets for the proportion of medical specialists across basic specialties through 2035, including a regional breakdown. The targets were formulated by the Advisory Committee on Medical Manpower Planning, established and chaired by Ministry Director-General Moshe Bar Siman-Tov in January 2025.
For roughly 50 years, specialty planning was managed by the Scientific Council of the Israel Medical Association (IMA), dictating the number of residents, specialties, departments, and syllabi. "If we hadn't intervened about seven or eight years ago, we would be in a catastrophe today, and in a complete catastrophe in ten years," Bar Siman-Tov said during the press conference presenting the targets.
According to ministry data, the number of doctors in the country is projected to grow by 42% over the next decade, rising from 37,600 to 53,500, with the per capita rate increasing from 3.6 to 4.2 per 1,000 residents. The OECD average currently stands at 3.9. The number of active specialists is expected to surge by 57% to 32,000. This growth relies heavily on expanding medical education: while 820 students began medical studies in 2020, 1,448 began in 2025, with targets set for 1,700 students in 2027 and 2,000 in 2030. Concurrently, the ministry anticipates a decline in foreign medical graduates following the Yatziv reform.
The committee divided specialties into four categories, aiming for increases of 35%, 25%, or 15% in the rate of specialists per 100,000 residents, or maintaining current levels. Rachel Brenner Shalem, head of strategic and economic planning at the ministry, noted that between 2015 and 2024, the number of specialists grew by 15%, but the growth was unevenly distributed across fields. "This is what an unplanned economy looks like, and this is precisely what we intend to fix now," she stated.
By 2035, internal medicine targets 6,100 active specialists compared to 3,880 today; family medicine aims for 4,530 versus 2,630; pediatrics targets 4,030 compared to 2,750; psychiatry aims for 1,580 versus 910; and geriatrics targets 1,010 compared to 520. In obstetrics and gynecology, the current rate of 15.96 per 100,000 residents is recommended to rise by 25% by 2035, reaching 21 per 100,000.
While targets mandate a uniform per capita rate across all districts, starting points vary significantly. In the Northern District, oncology specialists currently stand at 28% of the 2035 target, and physical medicine and rehabilitation at 31%. Out of 20,344 active specialists, 10,247 work in the Central District—more than half. Brenner Shalem explained that the statistical model factors in new licenses, retirement trends, population growth, morbidity trends, artificial intelligence impacts, and changing physician preferences regarding work-life balance.
Although the initiative involved 22 stakeholders across hospitals, health maintenance organizations, the IMA, and government bodies, the announcement does not specify an enforcement mechanism. When asked about regulations mandating residency position allocations according to the targets, Bar Siman-Tov pointed to incentives such as funding medical studies for students from the periphery in exchange for service commitments, joint residencies between central and peripheral hospitals, and forthcoming clauses in physicians' wage agreements.
