Inside Hamas's Secret Deception Plan Leading Up to October 7
Newly revealed Hamas protocols show how Yahya Sinwar's secret military council meticulously planned the October 7 attack while executing a multi-year deception campaign that exploited Israeli intelligence blind spots.
On January 8, 2023, the 'Reduced Military Council' convened in strict secrecy in Khan Yunis. This small, clandestine body was established by Yahya Sinwar as part of Hamas's lessons learned after Operation Guardian of the Walls. Due to high compartmentalization, it was the only forum where Hamas discussed the 'Grand Project,' the codename for the attack on Israel. The protocols of this council did not reach Aman in real-time, and some were captured only during the fighting in Gaza. A meeting held ten months before the attack revealed a confident and determined atmosphere, recorded by Marwan Issa. The council noted that recent events, such as Itamar Ben-Gvir's visit to the Temple Mount, would help rally the Axis of Resistance and domestic populations around a shared sacred site.
The Strategy of Deception and Normalization
To ensure the success of the 'Grand Project,' Hamas implemented a massive deception campaign designed to lull Israeli intelligence into a false sense of security. Since 2016, Hamas documents outlined the need for a comprehensive deception plan. Recognizing that Israeli intelligence monitored their communications and borders, Hamas chose the tactic of ambiguity and habituation. They conducted noisy, televised drills to create the impression of routine exercises while preparing for the actual assault. Intelligence warnings from figures like intelligence officer 'V' were repeatedly dismissed by senior commanders who viewed the drills as mere posturing.
'The deception led the victim into false certainty: they were sure they understood, but were entirely wrong,' noted a security system investigator.
Financial Flows and Strategic Blindness
Simultaneously, Hamas cultivated the illusion of normalization, leveraging Qatari funds and economic arrangements to convince Israeli leadership that Sinwar preferred governance over armed conflict. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and defense establishment figures largely bought into this concept, prioritizing stability and the containment of Gaza while focusing on other regional threats such as Iran. Despite multiple warning signs, including the activation of communication SIM cards on the eve of holidays and detailed intelligence reports regarding Nukhba force drills, the prevailing paradigm remained unshaken until the morning of October 7, 2023.
