Israeli Intelligence Warns of Hamas Rearmament Amid Stalled Disarmament
Israeli intelligence detects Hamas stockpiling weapons and rehabilitating military capabilities in hospitals and schools, exploiting the political interim before U.S. and Israeli elections while disarmament mechanisms stall.
Israeli intelligence agencies have recently identified an increased preparation by Hamas for the possibility of resuming fighting in the Gaza Strip. According to intelligence assessments presented to the political leadership, Hamas is exploiting the interim period to stockpile force and weaponry, including transferring armaments to civilian areas such as hospitals and schools. Israeli assessments indicate that Hamas is also factoring in the political calendar, calculating that until the elections in Israel and the United States, Israel's room for maneuver is limited and it will not receive a green light to return to a wide-scale campaign in the Strip.
According to an official familiar with the intelligence picture, Hamas understands that following the elections, a situation may arise where Israel receives a broader operational scope in Gaza, prompting the organization to prepare now for a potential return to combat. This assessment was presented during the Security Cabinet meeting convened on Sunday. Cabinet sources reported that briefings by the IDF and Shin Bet indicated that Hamas has resumed using hospitals in the Strip for terrorist purposes. Security officials clarified to the ministers that this is not a new modus operandi, but rather a return to a previously known pattern, and that the use of hospitals has resumed significantly.
Signs of Hamas's rehabilitation are also evident in operational activities over recent weeks. The IDF and Shin Bet have repeatedly reported the elimination of Hamas operatives allegedly involved in "rehabilitating the organization's capabilities" and advancing terror plots. Last month, the IDF struck three weapons depots in the Strip containing firearms, explosives, and anti-tank weaponry. According to the military, Hamas operatives were identified arriving at the depots and taking weapons. In additional incidents, the security establishment reported targeting individuals financing the rehabilitation of military infrastructure and force building.
Financial rehabilitation efforts are also underway. In September, the IDF and Shin Bet announced the elimination of Muhammad Abu Alwan, who was responsible for the political wing's funds and was among 16 financial operatives accused of transferring over one billion dollars during the war to finance the organization's military activity. Meanwhile, the mechanism intended to dismantle Hamas's military capabilities is not yet fully operational. Nearly a year after the ceasefire, the alternative Palestinian administration expected to assume responsibility in the Strip has not yet established itself, and the forces designated to integrate into the new security apparatus are not yet fully prepared.
Against this backdrop, criticism arose in the Cabinet regarding the Peace Council's approach to implementing the plan. Minister Orit Strock warned Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu against the "salami method," referring to the gradual rehabilitation of the Strip before Hamas's disarmament is complete. Strock argued that a pilot project initially presented as limited and localized is now becoming a model for ongoing operations, warning that dividing the Strip into sectors threatens the principle of conditioning reconstruction on disarmament. Netanyahu responded that he would handle the issue.
Israel's freedom of action in Gaza largely depends on the stance of the White House. While carrying out targeted operations, Israeli intelligence assesses that Hamas believes a broad military campaign is unlikely without an American green light. Consequently, Hamas factors in the U.S. election cycle and whether Donald Trump's administration will alter its stance afterward. While there is no public gap between Jerusalem and Washington regarding the ultimate goal of disarming Hamas, disagreements persist over interim measures and Israel's operational scope while disarmament mechanisms remain unimplemented.
