Drama at the UN: an economist, the daughter of Holocaust survivors, is the leading candidate to replace Guterres

For the first time in history, could a woman of Jewish origin head the international organization? The first informal and non-official poll conducted on Thursday in the UN Security Council indicates Rebecca Grinspen, former vice president of Costa Rica, as the leading favorite for the next UN secretary-general’s post, reports Reuters.

According to the agency, Grinspen, a highly regarded economist born to Jewish parents who fled Europe after surviving the Holocaust, received 10 votes in favor, one against, and 4 abstentions out of 15 Security Council members. In the 80 years of the UN’s existence, no woman has ever served as secretary-general, and no person of Jewish origin has ever headed it.

The candidates are competing to replace the incumbent secretary-general, the Portuguese António Guterres, who will end his term at the end of the year after two five-year terms.

Tight at the top: former ministers and the head of the IAEA

In second place in the initial poll was the former foreign minister of Guyana, Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett (9 in favor, 2 against, 4 abstentions)—a result that diplomats described as a surprise. In third place came Rafael Grossi, an Argentine who currently heads the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), with 7 in favor, 2 against, and 6 abstentions.

Among the other candidates are former president of Chile Michelle Bachelet (6 in favor, 5 against), former president of Senegal Macky Sall (6 in favor, 7 against), former foreign minister of Ecuador María Fernanda Espinosa (5 in favor, 2 against), and Ugandan diplomat Olara Otunnu (2 in favor, 5 against).

Israel’s UN ambassador, Danny Danon, addressed the upcoming elections, stating:

"The next secretary-general must remember that the UN was established to serve all member states equally, and that he must deal with the institutional antisemitism that has taken root in parts of the UN system."

In Washington, expectations for the next leader were also clarified. The US ambassador to the UN, Mike Waltz, noted: “We need a secretary-general who will refresh this institution, make it leaner, more tailored to its purpose, and more relevant on the international stage.”

The selection mechanism

The vote held yesterday is only the first in a series of confidential straw polls. At this stage, all ballots of the 15 council members are identical, so it is not possible to know whether the votes against came from one of the five permanent council members (the USA, Russia, China, the UK, and France)—which hold the right of veto.

In later stages, the five powers will use ballots of different colors, which will reveal whether a particular candidate received a veto from one of them. To win the Security Council’s recommendation, the candidate must obtain at least 9 votes in favor and zero veto votes. After that, the recommendation is passed on for approval by the UN General Assembly.

Experts estimate that this is a lengthy process expected to run into September and October, when additional candidates may still join the race.