Doomsday 2026: The 1960 Population Study That Predicted the End of the World

The 1960 Doomsday Mathematical Model

Friday, November 13, 2026. This is the date when humanity was supposedly scheduled to reach 'Doomsday', at least according to a scientific study published 66 years ago. The extraordinary prediction, based on mathematical calculations of world population growth, is returning to headlines worldwide as the menacing date approaches within less than a month. However, despite the dramatic title, the real story behind the research is equally surprising.

It all started on November 4, 1960, when physicist Heinz von Foerster and two colleagues from the University of Illinois, Patricia Mora and Lawrence Amiot, published an article in the prestigious journal Science with an unambiguous title: 'Doomsday: Friday, November 13, 2026'. According to their calculations, if the world population continued to grow at the rate it had over the two preceding millennia, it would approach a mathematical infinity on that exact date.

'Our great-grandchildren will not starve to death, but they will be squeezed to death,' the researchers wrote, suggesting that humanity would face unprecedented density rather than a lack of food.

Why the Apocalyptic Scenario Failed

Now, 66 years after the study's publication, the picture is entirely different. As explained in a recent article published in Popular Science magazine, the forecast was based on the assumption that population growth rates would continue accelerating indefinitely. In reality, global growth rates began to slow, and birth rates dropped significantly in many countries.

Mathematical biologist Joel Cohen from Columbia University explained that von Foerster successfully described past trends precisely at the moment they began to change. According to current UN projections, the global population is expected to peak at approximately 10.3 billion people by the mid-2080s and then gradually decline.