Five things to know ahead of the stock market opening
Tel Aviv will look for direction at the opening in light of uncertainty in global markets. Dual-listed chip stocks will weigh on the opening, Elbit will balance. Among those reporting today: Azrieli, Bet Shemesh Engines, and Clal Insurance. Declines in Asia led by chip stocks; New York futures are stable. Bank of America warns investors: 'Everything but bonds'. A trillion dollars in space: Goldman Sachs marks the next investment target. Globes puts things in order ahead of the market opening.
Trading review: current reports, trends, indices, stock prices, bonds, foreign exchange, commodities, and analyst recommendations. 08:10.
1. Stock market
Trading in Tel Aviv this morning will be influenced by global events - the stalemate in negotiations between Iran and the US, the Israeli strike in Syria, the declines in chip stocks in Asia, and the continued rise in oil prices. Wall Street futures are stable this morning ahead of the publication of the Fed minutes tonight. The declines in chip stocks are reaching the stock exchange this morning: Camtek stock with a negative gap of about 3%, Tower at 2%, Elbit stock, which has a positive gap of 2.5%, will balance. Among the quarterly reports to be published today: Clal Insurance, Castro, Ashot, Bet Shemesh Engines, and Azrieli Group. On Wall Street, ZIM will report.
Yesterday, trading opened with declines under the influence of futures on New York indices, but during the day the declines moderated, and towards the close, the market turned around and finished with price increases. The TA-90 index rose by 1.5% and TA-35 finished with a slight increase. The TA-Software index jumped by 4.3% following Matrix's strong reports. The banking index rose by 1.9%, the TA-Oil and Gas index by 1.6%, and real estate indices rose by up to 1.5%. On the other hand, the technology sector shed 1.6%, the security and industry sectors recorded declines of about 1.1% and 0.9%, respectively.
Matrix stock attracted central interest and jumped by over 11% following a report of strong results. It pulled other software stocks, including One Technologies, Formula Systems, and Hilan. On the other hand, chip stocks suffered sharp declines; Tower, Camtek, and Nova lost over 5% of their value following the opening of trading on Wall Street. Other stocks that stood out with declines: Meitav Investments and Priortech lost over 4% against the backdrop of a target price cut for Meitav by Jefferies Bank following the financial reports. In the retail and fashion sector, Urbanica stock jumped against the backdrop of reporting a record profit. In the income-producing real estate sector, Big stock jumped against the backdrop of reporting a 60% jump in profit.
Trading in Asia is taking place this morning with sharp declines, following the profit-taking on Wall Street and the continued pressure on chip stocks. South Korea leads the declines, with the KOSPI index falling by about 5.9%, and Samsung and SK Hynix losing more than 7% each. In Japan, there are also declines of about 1%, SoftBank falls by about 8%, while the indices of China, Hong Kong, and Australia are trading in negative territory. On the positive side, Unitree Robotics stock is jumping by about 600% on its first trading day on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. It is the first humanoid robot manufacturer trading in China.
The news this morning: the Trump administration agreed to delay by three days the 50% tariffs on Canada, to allow for the continuation of negotiations between the countries. In New York, futures on Wall Street are stable for now. The focus today will be on the publication of the Fed meeting minutes, which may provide further hints regarding the disagreements within the central bank and the future direction of interest rates in the US.
Yesterday on Wall Street: a collapse in chip stocks dragged Wall Street down, against the backdrop of concerns about inflation and ballooning government debt, which continue to keep bond yields at high levels. The Nasdaq index fell by 1.1%, S&P 500 by 0.6%, and Dow Jones almost unchanged. The strongest sector on Wall Street this year suffered a heavy blow: the recovery recorded in August in chip stocks lost momentum, when the ETF tracking the semiconductor sector (SOXX) fell by 5% and the one tracking memory chip stocks (DRAM) is losing even more. Notable are Western Digital, SanDisk, Micron, and Seagate Technology stocks. Camtek and Tower fell by about 9%. In the bond market, relative stability was recorded, but the yield on 10-year government bonds remained near the highest levels since the beginning of 2025. At the same time, the price of oil climbed to 85 dollars per barrel, against the backdrop of the stalemate between the US and Iran over control of the Strait of Hormuz.
2. Bond markets
Good news for Israel's risk premium. In the past month, it is evident that the worrying trend recorded in the month and a half preceding it has reversed. Israel's 10-year CDS, which is calculated as the difference between the yield to maturity of Israel government bonds (in dollars) and similar bonds of the US government plus additional components, fell from a level of 104 basis points on July 23 to the 87-point area this week. Let us recall that on the eve of October 7, 2023, this level stood at below 80 points, so the market has calmed down again after a period of renewed tension with Iran. At the peak of the war, the premium approached 200 points, and since then has retreated in a consistent process. For now, investors have calmed down a bit in the summer, and these are good news for the State of Israel's debt raising, as they herald ease in capital raising in international markets.
In the world, however, the situation is less encouraging. The intensification of bond fire sales around the world pushed the yield on 10-year US bonds to its highest level since the beginning of 2025, when sparse August trading meets investors fearing inflation and a flood of corporate debt issues. The yield climbed by about two basis points to about 4.75%, the highest level in 19 months. The yield on 30-year Treasury bonds recently stood at 5.329%, the highest closing level since 2007. In Germany and France, long-term bond yields are on their way to the highest closing levels since 2011 and 2008, respectively.
"The rate of return that investors demand from investments continues to rise," said Florian Ielpo of Lombard Odier. According to him, this time the rise stems from a combination of high oil prices, an increase in government debt issues, and a rise in the risk premium on long-term bonds, and not from expectations of further interest rate hikes. Veteran strategist Ed Yardeni said he is not yet pressing the "panic button," but is closely monitoring the possibility that the "bond police" - investors who punish governments by selling bonds, will do so. Yardeni recalled the summer of 2023, when the yield on 10-year US bonds jumped from about 4% to about 5% within a few months. Eventually, this level attracted many buyers to the market, and he believes that this time too, a similar opportunity may arise for investors.
And not only in the US. In developed economies around the world, long-term government bond yields are climbing to levels not seen in decades. In the Wall Street Journal, they say this is mainly due to the competition for money, or the "Nvidia effect". The newspaper quotes Barclays Bank, which claims that part of the rise in long-term yields in the world does not stem from fear of government debts, but rather from the huge appetite of technology companies to raise money for investments in AI. "The change this year was in the volume and duration of debt raisings related to artificial intelligence," was written in the Barclays review.
Meanwhile, with a national debt approaching 40 trillion dollars, Bank of America's chief investment strategist, Michael Hartnett, warns bond investors and recommends an "everything but bonds" approach. The American debt stands at about 39.9 trillion dollars and is expected to cross the 40 trillion mark in the coming days, with Hartnett estimating it will reach 50 trillion dollars by 2029. The central problem is not just the size of the debt, but the constant need to recycle it and issue huge amounts of new bonds. To attract buyers, the government is forced to offer higher yields, which leads to a decrease in the value of existing bonds, especially long-term ones. This rise makes mortgages, business loans, and consumer credit more expensive, and threatens to slow down economic growth. In the first six months of the 2026 fiscal year, the government raised 1.8 trillion dollars, and interest payments reached about 1.4 trillion dollars in the past year - a factor that creates a closed loop of increasing the deficit and additional issues. According to Hartnett, the anti-bond strategy will remain in effect as long as the yield on 5-year bonds remains above 3.25%, and he recommends focusing on alternative assets such as gold, stocks, real estate, and biotech.
3. Commodity and currency markets
In the local currency market, a strengthening of the dollar was recorded yesterday. This morning, stability is recorded for now and the currency is trading around the level of 2.989 shekels to the dollar. Oil is climbing for the fourth consecutive day against the backdrop of tension with Iran, gold is stabilizing around 4,340 dollars per ounce after recording its sharpest daily decline in almost a month, as the jump in bond yields reduces the attractiveness of the precious metal.
4. Macro
US inflation data is pushing away the Fed's interest rate hike, so think Psagot economists. In their weekly review, they wrote that "one week that includes a weak employment report and very reasonable consumer and producer price indices will probably be enough to provide the monetary committee members with what they need to dismantle expectations for an interest rate hike". In Psagot, they note that the consumer price index for July, which was published in the US last week, showed a rise of 0.2% in the core index in line with expectations, and accordingly, annual core inflation fell to 2.5%. In the last three months, the pace fell to 1.6%. According to their assessment, the data supports leaving the interest rate unchanged in September, but they emphasize that more data is expected by then.
In Israel, Ofer Klein, head of the economics and research division at Harel, argues that despite the low inflation, the probability of another interest rate cut in two weeks is also low, although not zero. "The monthly rise in prices was mainly due to prices of vacations, housing, and flights in accordance with the seasonality characteristic of the beginning of summer and was partially offset by a decrease in the price of clothing and furniture. No unusual price increases were recorded and the index excluding housing remained unchanged".
"Our initial forecast for the coming indices is a sharp rise of 0.9% in the August index against the backdrop of another significant price increase in flight and vacation prices and the continued rise in fuel prices. On the other hand, in September, the first negative index since January is expected with a decrease of 0.2%, mainly due to the decrease in flight and fuel prices. For the next 12 months, our forecast is unchanged at 1.9%. Regarding the interest rate, the decision will be made in exactly two weeks on September 1. Although inflation and expectations are below the center of the target, the data strengthens our assessment that the interest rate will remain unchanged, in light of the rise in geopolitical and budgetary uncertainty since the last decision alongside the rapid rise in wages and strong growth data. However, we still estimate that the interest rate will return to decline towards the end of the year.
5. Forecast
Goldman Sachs identifies growth potential in a new industry - space: launches, satellite contracts, and initial public offerings have become topics of conversation around the dinner table for quite a few investors. Now, one of the biggest names in the world of finance is giving an exact number to the direction in which all this momentum is heading. And it is big enough to completely change the way investors think about the sector - no longer just as a niche field, but as a real asset class - Goldman Sachs predicts a space economy of 1.8 trillion dollars by 2035.
According to the investment bank, space is moving from being a frontier led by governments to an institutional asset class, according to a report published on August 13 by the Goldman Sachs Global Institute. According to the bank, the decrease in launch costs, private investments, and financing in public markets are reshaping what the bank calls the "Orbital Economy". Under the title "The Second Space Age", the report describes how space is becoming a new pillar in the industrial economy, with all its supply chains and infrastructure centers, according to Goldman Sachs. The companies and countries that will control launch capacity, production, orbital infrastructure, and data generated from space are the ones that will create and shape the way value will be created across the entire sector.
Its asset management arm delved into the depth of that same topic, defining "economic security" as a key investment theme for 2026. It highlighted opportunities in the fields of security, energy, infrastructure, critical supply chains, and national security capabilities. Institutional conviction of this kind is of crucial importance, because the next stage of space industrialization will require huge investments. Future capital needs include launch capacity, satellite factories, infrastructure on the moon, space-based data platforms, and resilient communication networks. All these require significant capital to reach a broad scale, and even longer time to become profitable, or as they call it at Goldman Sachs - "patient capital".
But analyst opinions regarding specific companies remain divided, even though the broader thesis is recruiting more and more believers. Investment bank Raymond James set a target price of 800 dollars for SpaceX - one of the boldest forecasts on Wall Street. In contrast, HSBC began covering the stock with a "hold" recommendation with a target price of only 115 dollars. Morgan Stanley predicts several scenarios, a bear scenario of 75 dollars, a base scenario of 300 dollars, and a bull scenario of 600 dollars. This gap between the bull and bear scenario shows how much valuations remain unstable, even though Goldman's trillion-dollar forecast is in the background. Access to capital may become a competitive advantage in itself, and not just a byproduct of good engineering. This mechanism of thinking puts pressure on smaller space companies with limited capital to merge, create partnerships, or find their own way to public markets. Capital is increasingly concentrating around the big players. In Fortune magazine, they noted that a number of companies that are already trading on the stock exchange, including Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile, and Firefly, are emerging as rising participants in a space economy whose value is growing, even though SpaceX has established its position as the dominant player in the industry. For now, investors remain weighing a long-term thesis of a trillion dollars against short-term volatility, which has already strongly shaken some of the biggest names in the sector. Goldman's own perception suggests that this tension will not be resolved quickly. Ultimately, for anyone trying to ride the trend from this point, patience may be just as important as the persuasiveness of the thesis.
