Plummeting in the polls and a cloud of corruption: the troubles of the "Ukrainian Churchill"
Ukraine is achieving impressive successes on the front, but the public image of President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to crack. His associates are finding themselves in interrogation rooms one after another, generals are gaining popularity at his expense against the backdrop of the war, and most polls show: the people are fed up with the government and the opposition, and want new people.
After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, four and a half years ago, some Western media outlets gave Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky the nickname "the Ukrainian Churchill" — due to the charismatic appearances that the former comedic actor demonstrated in his daily appearances in the mainstream media and especially on social networks after the outbreak of hostilities. Today it seems that part of this aura has faded — and in Zelensky's circle there are those who fear that he will also repeat the end of the political career of Churchill, who was ousted in elections months after the end of the World War.
On the battlefield, the Ukrainians have indeed achieved impressive successes in recent months and caused damage to the Russian energy industry that led to huge queues at gas stations in Russia, but many Ukrainians do not identify these achievements with Zelensky — and would be interested in seeing him finish his role. According to data published this month by the Ukrainian public opinion research institute "Rating", if the presidential elections in Ukraine were held now, Zelensky would advance from first place to the second round — but would lose in it to any of the central candidates mentioned as possible candidates to succeed him.
Those potential heirs are all security-background figures who gained popularity against the backdrop of the ongoing war. According to the polls, those who have gained more popularity than Zelensky are former Chief of Staff Valerii Zaluzhnyi, who was dismissed by the president after managing the war against Russia in its first year and was later appointed Ukraine's ambassador to Germany — a role that some see as a kind of "exile" in order to distance him from the centers of power in Kyiv. Those who are also gaining more popularity than Zelensky according to the polls are the commander of Ukrainian intelligence Kyrylo Budanov and the defense minister who was dismissed a few weeks ago, Mykhailo Fedorov. For example, according to the "Rating" poll data, in the case of a contest against Zaluzhnyi in the second round, the incumbent president would receive only about 33% of the votes, compared to 66% for the former Chief of Staff.
The level of trust of the Ukrainian public in the president is also steadily declining. According to a survey by the research institute "KMIS", conducted this month, 58% of the Ukrainian public trusts Zelensky, compared to 38% who do not trust him. The data of his rivals according to the same survey are much better: 66% of Ukrainians trust Valerii Zaluzhnyi, 63% trust Mykhailo Fedorov, and Kyrylo Budanov enjoys 61% support.
"Want new leaders"
Zelensky, let us recall, was elected for a 5-year term in 2019, and his term was supposed to end in May 2024 — but since the Russian invasion, martial law has been in effect in Ukraine, which according to the law there does not allow for elections, and these have been postponed without any horizon for their holding at the moment. Zelensky was already under heavy pressure last year from US President Donald Trump to hold new elections, and during their confrontation Trump even called Zelensky a "dictator", but their relations have improved in the last year, partly due to Ukraine's successes in its long-range attack campaign in Russia, and Trump is no longer making this demand.
But in the internal Ukrainian arena, Zelensky's status is in decline and there are several reasons for this. Quite a bit has been written in the last year about corruption scandals in which his associates were involved. Just this week, Zelensky was forced to fire his deputy chief of staff, Iryna Mudra, following an investigation by anti-corruption agencies. According to the suspicion, Mudra is involved in a money laundering network in the amount of about 150 million hryvnias (about 3.4 million dollars). Even earlier, last May, the former head of the presidential apparatus Andriy Yermak, who has been considered in recent years the most powerful man in Ukraine and was for years a close associate of Zelensky, was arrested. He was suspected of corruption and money laundering on a large scale and was released after a few days on bail.
A survey by the research institute "KMIS" showed that large parts of the Ukrainian public believe that the country is moving in the wrong direction and corruption is the big problem of the current government. But, according to those who conduct public opinion polls, the Ukrainian public is fed up with the same leadership and wants to see new people in senior positions in the country. The CEO of the research institute "KMIS" Anton Hrushetskyi explained to the newspaper "Ukrainska Pravda" the mood in Ukrainian society and said: "This is not a situation where people see a strong political opposition in the parliament and want it to come to power. Here, the attitude towards the government and the opposition is the same in terms of expectations. That is, there is a demand that the government, the coalition, and the opposition leave the political arena and that new political leaders appear — from among the military, volunteers, and local government officials, some of whom are considered effective".
Defense minister who became an electoral threat
One of those who are considered effective and not tainted by corruption is the dismissed defense minister Mykhailo Fedorov (35), who came to politics from high-tech and served in the position for about half a year. Since he was fired by Zelensky, against the backdrop of disputes with Chief of Staff Oleksandr Syrskyi, who was also dismissed, demonstrations are being held across Ukraine for the return of Fedorov to a senior position in the government system. Fedorov himself published a recorded statement this week on social networks in which he called for holding elections in Ukraine even in a state of war.
Fedorov attacked in his words the "old system" which he says works to protect itself and "is afraid of change", and claimed that a reform he promoted in the field of defense procurement contributed to his dismissal. Without explicitly mentioning Zelensky's name, he hinted that the president is at the head of a system in which corruption is still rampant: "People cannot live forever in a country where they do not understand why certain decisions are made. Why certain reforms are advancing and others are blocked", he said, "this is especially dangerous when a society develops the feeling that the main criterion for appointment is not professional ability, achievements, and the ability to change the country, but personal loyalty to the system".
The director of "KMIS" Anton Hrushetskyi explicitly says that Zelensky's decision to fire Fedorov caused an increase in his popularity. According to him: "Just in May, about 20% of respondents did not know Fedorov at all, even when we told them he was the defense minister and former minister of digital transformation. But within just a few days, thanks to the efforts of the presidential office, recognition and trust in him grew significantly". In such a state of affairs, there are quite a few in Ukraine who believe that Zelensky has a clear political interest in continuing the confrontation with Russia. Those who think so see Russia as a bitter enemy and do not show sympathy for the Kremlin's positions — but at the same time, in their view, the price that Ukrainian society is paying after many years of war is too high.
