Brazil Presidential Race Tightens as Lula and Bolsonaro Face Statistical Tie
Brazil's presidential race reaches a tense tie as a new Datafolha poll shows President Lula leading Flavio Bolsonaro by a slim margin ahead of Sunday's vote.
The presidential race in Brazil has entered its final stretch with a tense tie, as a Datafolha poll published today shows incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva leading by a slim margin over Flavio Bolsonaro. Meanwhile, the conservative candidate announced on his X account that he would not participate in the central televised debate.
The Datafolha poll released overnight paints a tight picture ahead of the first round scheduled for Sunday. In a runoff scenario, to be held on October 25 if no candidate crosses the 50% threshold, Lula receives 48% of the vote compared to 45% for Senator Bolsonaro. Since the margin of error stands at 2%, the result reflects a statistical tie between the two.
First Round and Market Reactions
In the first round, Lula leads with 42% compared to 38% for the former president's son. Other candidates trail far behind, with Ciro, Caiado, and Santos securing only single-digit percentages. These figures confirm the trend from the summer months, when Bolsonaro erased an 8% gap held by the incumbent president, turning the race completely open.
"A vote for Lula is a vote for the old judiciary system," Bolsonaro stated during his campaign.
Financial markets in Brazil have reacted positively to the narrowing gap in the polls, recording gains in recent days due to the perception that the conservative candidate presents more market-friendly policies.
