Flavio Bolsonaro Leads Lula Ahead of Brazil Runoff, Poll Shows
A new AtlasIntel and Bloomberg poll shows Flavio Bolsonaro leading incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva ahead of Brazil's October 25 presidential runoff, with potential major implications for relations with Israel.
A new poll by AtlasIntel and Bloomberg, published on Friday, gives Flavio Bolsonaro a significant lead over incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva ahead of the presidential runoff scheduled for October 25. Bolsonaro, a prominent supporter of Israel in Brazilian politics, receives 51.1% of the vote in the poll, compared to 45.7% for Lula.
Polling Details and Margins
When calculating only valid votes, excluding undecided voters and blank or spoiled ballots, Bolsonaro's lead widens further: 52.8% to 47.2% for Lula. The percentage of undecided voters, blank ballots, and spoiled votes stands at 3.2%. The poll was conducted between October 3 and October 8 among 5,026 respondents, with a margin of error of one percentage point.
The data reinforces Bolsonaro's momentum following the major surprise in the first round. The senator, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, finished in first place with 47.03% of the valid votes, compared to 45.16% for Lula. A Datafolha poll published earlier this week also placed him in the lead, with 52% of the valid votes compared to 48% for Lula, though that margin fell within the sampling error.
Pledge to Restore Ties with Israel
A victory by Bolsonaro could trigger a dramatic turnaround in relations between Brazil and Israel. During the campaign, he pledged that if elected, Brazil will stand alongside Israel starting in 2027, return an ambassador to Israel, and move its embassy to Jerusalem. He sharply criticized Lula's policy toward Israel and accused him of damaging bilateral ties.
"We look forward to restoring the extraordinary friendship between Israel and Brazil," Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said after congratulating Bolsonaro on his first-round success.
Relations between Jerusalem and Brasilia deteriorated sharply during Lula's term, partly due to his accusations that Israel is committing genocide in the Gaza Strip. Now, less than three weeks before the decisive vote, the new poll points to a real possibility that Latin America's largest nation could return to the pro-Israel camp.